Today I saw that the FOMC meeting scheduled for 7/28–29 has been put on the calendar. This is the second “shot” from the new chair, Kevin Woush, after he held rates steady in June—only three weeks away.
When I reviewed things myself, there are a few points worth watching:
1. Woush’s June debut was unanimous: all 12 votes, keeping the target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The market interpreted it as “data first.” Right now, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 72% probability of a rate cut before year-end, but the official dot plot only hints at a single cut.
2. BTC has actually been pretty boring these days. On 7/4 it briefly touched $63,000, then fell back. On a daily basis it’s been moving around in the $60,000–$64,000 range box. Trading volume hasn’t expanded meaningfully; RSI is around the middle; MACD is also grinding around the zero line. This is a typical “waiting-for-news” pattern.
3. Personally, I lean toward the July meeting also staying on hold, but the wording may be slightly softer than in June. It could even imply that September is a more suitable window. If that happens, BTC in the short term will most likely continue to grind within this range: if it dips, there may be support around $58,000; if it rises toward $65,000, it could get knocked back.
4. The real inflection point, in my view, isn’t the July decision—it’s Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at the end of August, and then the FOMC meeting in September. If Woush eases his tone in July, the market will likely price in the September rate cut immediately. That’s when BTC might have a chance to break out of the range upward.
Risk points: If July employment (nonfarm payrolls) or CPI suddenly comes in hot, Woush’s stance could turn more hawkish—then the $58,000 support level needs to be watched carefully.
Not investment advice. DYOR, manage your position size yourself, and don’t force trades with leverage.
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(This post is generated with AI assistance. It may include third-party views, errors, or outdated information. Binance is not responsible for any losses arising from this and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice.)