$AXS /USDT Short Trade Setup: Targeting Downside Levels Amid Bearish Momentum
Market Overview
Axie Infinity Shards (
$AXS ) has struggled to sustain upward momentum in recent weeks, posting a 12% decline over the past two weeks amid a confluence of bearish catalysts. The token failed to break above its key resistance zone of 1.48–\1.51 on the 4-hour chart, with declining active user numbers in the Axie Infinity ecosystem (down 18% month-over-month) and an upcoming 5% token unlock in March 2026 weighing on investor sentiment. Broader altcoin weakness, driven by Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation below $48k, has further amplified AXS’s downside pressure.
This analysis outlines a structured short trade setup for
$AXS /USDT, targeting the user-specified levels while incorporating risk management best practices.
Trade Setup
Entry Zone
Optimal Entry: 1.42–\1.45
Rationale: This zone marks the immediate resistance turned support-turned-resistance level from the past week’s price action. The 4-hour RSI is currently hovering at 57 (approaching overbought territory), and a bearish MACD crossover on the same timeframe signals fading bullish momentum. Enter short positions on a rejection candle (e.g., a bearish engulfing or shooting star) at this zone to confirm resistance holds.
Stop Loss (SL)
SL Level: $1.52
Rationale: Set your stop loss 0.5% above the recent swing high of $1.51 to avoid being stopped out by minor volatility. This level also coincides with the 50-day EMA, a key technical marker for trend reversals. If AXS breaks above this level, the bearish thesis is invalidated, and exiting the trade will limit losses to ~6% from the entry zone.
Take Profit (TP) Levels
1.
TP1: $1.33
Rationale: This is the first critical support zone, aligned with the 20-day moving average (DMA) and the lower bound of the recent consolidation range. Locking in partial profits here (30% of your position) will mitigate risk as the trade progresses.
2.
TP2: $1.24
Rationale: A major support level from Q4 2025, where AXS found consistent buying interest before a short-lived rally. This level also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2025–January 2026 rally. Take another 40% of your position here to secure further gains.
3.
TP3: $1.15
Rationale: The final target is the long-term support zone from early 2025, which also marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the same rally. This level is expected to hold strong, but if broken, it could signal a deeper downtrend. Close the remaining 30% of your position at this level.
Risk Management
* Position Sizing: Allocate no more than 1–2% of your total trading capital to this trade to avoid overexposure.
* Trailing Stop: For the remaining position after TP1 is hit, use a trailing stop of 3% to lock in profits if the price continues downward without reaching TP2 or TP3.
* Leverage: If trading on Binance Futures, limit leverage to 5x or lower to minimize liquidation risk during unexpected price spikes.
Final Notes
This trade setup is based on technical analysis and current market sentiment, but it is not a substitute for personalized financial advice. Always conduct your own research, monitor key news events (such as Axie Infinity ecosystem updates or regulatory announcements), and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk, and you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Binance is not responsible for any losses incurred from following this analysis.
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