ratecutexpectations

Siamo onesti:
per la maggior parte delle persone su questo pianeta, a nessuno importa chi gestisce la Fed o se il tasso degli Stati Uniti è 4%, 5% o 1%. Affitto, cibo, carburante, debito — questa è la realtà. Powell, tassi, grafici a punti — rumore di fondo.
Ma ai mercati interessa.
Ecco dove inizia il problema.
La Federal Reserve è stata progettata per essere indipendente. Oggi, non lo è. È catturata — dalla politica, dai mercati, dalle aspettative che non può più controllare. Quando circolano voci che un dirigente di BlackRock potrebbe diventare il prossimo Presidente della Fed, l'indipendenza diventa una barzelletta. Questa non è politica monetaria — è consolidamento del potere.

Right now, there is a massive gap between what the Fed says and what is actually happening. While some question President Trump’s style, his demand to lower interest rates is backed by cold, hard facts. The Federal Reserve is ignoring "hidden" signals that show the economy is ready to soar.
Let’s Dissect the Facts:
1. GDP Growth:
The economy is a rocket. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) just confirmed on January 22 that Q3 2025 growth was 4.4%. & The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model updated its forecast on January 21, 2026. It is now tracking above 5.4% for Q1 2026. .
2. The Inflation Lie: Official vs. Real-Time
The biggest disagreement is about the cost of living.
​The Official Number: The government says inflation is 2.7%. But they use old data that is often weeks or months out of date.​The Real-Time Number: Independent trackers like Truflation (which uses live data from Amazon, Walmart, and Zillow) show inflation is actually around 1.7%—well below the Fed's target.
3. Labor Market:
The job market is stable, not "overheated." Jobless claims are at a steady 200K, meaning people are working and the economy is healthy.
"Traditional economists say you don't cut rates when jobs are strong/steady. But they are wrong. If inflation is dead, keeping rates high is just a tax on growth."
4. No More Excuses for the Fed
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he wants to stay "independent" from politics. That sounds good, but independence should not be an excuse for being slow or wrong. With a steady job market and high growth, this is the "Golden Moment." The Fed can cut rates now to boost the economy without any fear.
5. Protecting the Market
If rates don't drop soon, the stock market will stay stuck in a "sideways chop" (going up and down with no progress). This makes investors lose hope. Also, cutting rates will slightly lower the value of the Dollar, which actually helps American businesses sell more products to other countries.
The Verdict:
If the Fed Powell continues to wait, they risk a "Deflation Spiral" where the economy slows down so much that it sucks up all the potential growth or worse it crashes. If we want to hit 6% growth by the end of 2026, we need lower rates immediately.This isn't just what Trump wants; it’s what the data demands.
#USIranMarketImpact #RateCutExpectations #GrayscaleBNBETFFiling #Powell

Oggi tratteremo:
Nessun cambiamento del regime di domanda per Bitcoin
I flussi dell'ETF dell'oro stanno raggiungendo Bitcoin
I dati sull'inflazione non sono favorevoli a tagli dei tassi
Presi insieme, questi tre grafici puntano alla stessa conclusione da angolazioni diverse.
L'azione del prezzo di Bitcoin non è ostacolata da un singolo shock o rischio da titolo. È limitata da un contesto più ampio in cui la domanda fresca rimane fragile, il capitale continua a favorire asset difensivi durante l'incertezza e la politica monetaria non ha spazio per diventare significativamente favorevole.