Weekly feature: Our experts analyzed the market situation and described how it may change in the short term for Bitcoin
The week from July 24 through July 30 was relatively quiet. Increased volatility on the market was observed at the beginning of the week, on Monday (July 24). Sellers broke their protective stops under the key support at $29,500. And that allowed them to reach $28,861 by the start of the U.S. session. There was no news behind the falling of quotations. The technical factor worked after the long consolidation and inability to pass the resistance of $31,500.
Volatility on the market was rising on Wednesday (July 26) after the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate. But the speech of the head of the American central bank Jerome Powell did not bring success to buyers either. As expected by market participants. The Fed raised the rate by 25 bps to 5.00-5.25% per annum. In his speech Fed Chairman Powell recognized the improvement of economic indicators. But emphasized the need for tight monetary policy to curb inflation. Further steps will depend on statistical data. According to the latest data from CME Group, market participants do not expect a rate hike before the end of the year.
Despite the recent partial defeat in a legal battle with Ripple Labs, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler. He continues to sharply criticize the cryptocurrency sector. And pointing to the lack of meaningful regulation, high risks for investors and the prevalence of scams.
Gensler warned investors that the crypto market is "rife with fraudsters." And investors should not assume that they get the full protection of securities laws. He criticized crypto exchanges, pointing out the lack of transparency and risks for investors.
Investors in cryptocurrencies should heed his warnings and realize that legislative protections here are still imperfect. The risks of losing money are high. At the same time, Ripple's victory sets an important precedent and may strengthen the crypto industry's position in the confrontation with regulators.
The focus of investors' attention has now shifted to statistical data for July: business activity indices in manufacturing and services, labor market report. Of course, they need decisions on spot ETFs on Bitcoin. However, decisions on those will be in 2024 before halving.
Amid the absence of strong catalysts, the recovery of BTC after Monday is weak.
The price has stabilized at $29,300. Although the U.S. stock market demonstrates stability. And buyers of cryptocurrencies lack drivers for a confident rally. BitRiver estimates that bitcoin needs to consolidate above $30,500 to reverse the bearish sentiment. To begin with, it needs to retest $29,500 and then already test it from above with a rebound. The level can again become a support for buyers.
To continue growth, it is important to keep the price above the trend line (daily timeframe), passing through $27,685. By September 1, it will shift to the $30,150 mark. Our experts note that the beginning of fall is the beginning of a new growth phase. Trading volumes remain low, so downside risks to $27,700 - $27,900 remain.
On Thursday (July 27), the BTC/USDt pair fell on strong US GDP data for the second quarter. Strong economic data unleashes the Fed to raise rates further. And to keep inflation in check and bring it back to the 2% target. Therefore, risk assets are reacting lower on such concerns. $BTC
