Bitcoin just broke $68,000 — and a new headline landed with it
$BTC fell to $67,568 intraday, breaking the $68,000 level named as next support after $70,000 fell this morning. It has since bounced back above $68,000, so this is an intraday break — the daily close at 05:00 PKT decides whether it sticks.
Snapshot (Binance, ~12:00 PKT): $68,838, down 6.4% in 24h. Range $67,568–$73,697. Volume $1.92B. 12 Nov close $71,460, below the 200-day average $73,095. RSI 28.2 — oversold.
What changed: Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it targeted a US early-warning radar in Bahrain (Al Jazeera/Reuters, 13 Nov) — the first such claim since early September. No confirmation from the US or Bahrain yet. The old drivers are still there: hot October CPI, a December Fed hike ~90% priced in, $1.44B of ETF outflows in 5 sessions, and $1.41B of liquidations in 24h.
Expectations — not a guarantee:
• Deribit options (20 Nov expiry): 60% chance BTC ends above $68,000, 39% above $70,000, 17% below $65,000.
• History: after 18 past dips below $68,000, BTC rose 5% first half the time (50%), fell 5% first a third (33%). The break alone is not a sell signal.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close back above $70,000, stop below $67,568, targets $70,000 then $73,095. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292, then $65,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
Next test: US PPI tonight, 18:30 PKT.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
$BTC fell to $67,568 intraday, breaking the $68,000 level named as next support after $70,000 fell this morning. It has since bounced back above $68,000, so this is an intraday break — the daily close at 05:00 PKT decides whether it sticks.
Snapshot (Binance, ~12:00 PKT): $68,838, down 6.4% in 24h. Range $67,568–$73,697. Volume $1.92B. 12 Nov close $71,460, below the 200-day average $73,095. RSI 28.2 — oversold.
What changed: Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it targeted a US early-warning radar in Bahrain (Al Jazeera/Reuters, 13 Nov) — the first such claim since early September. No confirmation from the US or Bahrain yet. The old drivers are still there: hot October CPI, a December Fed hike ~90% priced in, $1.44B of ETF outflows in 5 sessions, and $1.41B of liquidations in 24h.
Expectations — not a guarantee:
• Deribit options (20 Nov expiry): 60% chance BTC ends above $68,000, 39% above $70,000, 17% below $65,000.
• History: after 18 past dips below $68,000, BTC rose 5% first half the time (50%), fell 5% first a third (33%). The break alone is not a sell signal.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close back above $70,000, stop below $67,568, targets $70,000 then $73,095. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292, then $65,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
Next test: US PPI tonight, 18:30 PKT.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto