The last time $BTC traded this low was Aug 20. On Thursday it got there in a few hours, and the trigger had nothing to do with crypto.
A quiet start đľ
Bitcoin opened Thursday around $73,470, sitting right on its 200-day average near $73.1K. Spot ETFs had just logged a fifth straight day of outflows: â$299.8M on Nov 11, with BlackRock's IBIT alone at â$269.7M. Not great, but stable.
Nvidia's CEO quits đ¤Ą
Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang was stepping down, effective immediately. Nasdaq futures dipped, NVDA fell as much as 14% intraday, and crypto followed. Within an hour $BTC was trading under $72K.
The flush đĽ
The session low came in at $71,255 on Binance.
CoinGlass counted about $727M in liquidations over 24 hours, roughly 90% of them longs.
The single biggest was a $31M BTC long on Hyperliquid.
CryptoQuant data showed short-term holders sending 47,025 BTC to exchanges at a loss in a single day this week, the third-highest reading since late July.
Wall Street closes đľ
The Nasdaq ended â0.39% and NVDA â4.3%.
Strategy ($MSTR) closed â6.5% at $114.41 after MSCI confirmed it will remove the company from its indexes on Nov 30. Strategy holds 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456, so its stack now sits under water on paper.
Where the chart stands đť
BTC trades near $71,580, about â3.6% on the day.
Daily RSI is around 35. Price is below the 20-day ($77.7K), 50-day ($81.1K) and 200-day ($73.1K) averages.
Resistance: $72.6K (weekly Ichimoku base), $73.1K (200-day), then $75.7K, the short-term holder cost basis.
Support: $70K, then the 200-week average near $68K, then the weekly Supertrend around $66.8K.
What could help â
Friday's $2.48B BTC options expiry has a max pain of $76K, well above spot.
Miners are getting relief too: the next difficulty adjustment, expected late Friday, is tracking about â7.5%, the biggest cut since June.
What could hurt â ď¸
Markets price a 94% chance of a Fed rate hike on Dec 9.
Open interest is still above $50B, so leverage hasn't fully cleared.
And the $60K put on Deribit holds about $900M in open interest, which tells you some traders are paying for deeper protection.
Three paths đ¤ˇ
đ˘ A softer PPI and a reclaim of the 200-day at $73.1K opens $75.7K.
⪠Chop between $70K and $73K into the weekend.
đ´ A daily close under $70K points to the 200-week average near $68K, then $66.8K.
What analysts are saying đĽ
CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno called $73K the key threshold, and that level is now overhead.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson puts the CVDD bear-market reference near $52,700.
Daan Crypto Trades noted the correction has been "much slower and orderly" than 2023's.
Coming up đ
Fri Nov 13: $2.48B BTC options expiry
Fri Nov 13: US October PPI (consensus +0.4% m/m)
Fri Nov 13, late: difficulty adjustment
Tue Nov 17: Nvidia Q3 results
Mon Nov 30: MSCI removes Strategy
My read đł
This drop came from outside crypto, and the leverage flush did most of the damage in one afternoon. The 200-week average near $68K is the line that would turn a correction into something heavier.
What moves $BTC most on Friday? đ
The options expiry
PPI
More ETF outflows
Data: CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, Farside, Deribit, mempool.space, CME FedWatch
#BTC #CryptoNews #Write2Earn #bitcoin #PPI
Educational content, not financial advice. DYOR.