*Bitcoin $BTC Analysis - 8 Nov 2026*
Current Snapshot
- *Price:* *$75,886* [-0.17% 24h]
- *Market Cap:* $1.53T
- *From ATH $126,080:* *-39.9%* down
- *YTD:* -14.6% | *1 Year:* -25.9%
- *Fear & Greed:* *25 - Extreme Fear*
- *RSI (Daily):* *37.9* - Weak, but not yet oversold
- *Trend:* *Bearish* on Daily + 4H, Bullish only on Weekly 651f
Bitcoin is fighting to hold the *50-week SMA at $75,556*. It has held for 3 days, but lost the 50-week EMA already.
Why Is It Falling?
*1. Macro - Jobs Report:*
US added 165,000 jobs vs 65,000 expected. Now Fed hike odds for December jumped to *77-80%*. Strong dollar + higher yields = bad for BTC in short term.
*2. ETF Outflows:*
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost *$842M in 2 days* (5-6 Nov) 1a6b
*3. Tech Sell-off:*
Nasdaq -4%, S&P -2.7% after midterms. BTC is trading like a risk asset, not digital gold right now.
*4. Binance Hack Hangover:*
$6.3B hack in late October still weighing on sentiment, plus $1.27B liquidation wave on Friday.
Key Levels - Diagram 3
Type Level
**Resistance 3** **$82,150**
**Resistance 2** **$79,101**
**Resistance 1** **$77,708**
**Immediate Resistance** **$76,334**
**Current Price** **$75,886**
**Support 1** **$75,166**
**Support 2** **$74,762** - Friday Low
**Support 3** **$73,200** - 200-Day MA
**Breakdown Target** **$69,000**
*Most Important Level: $76,814 (200-Day EMA)*
Price is *below* all major EMAs: 20-Day $79,577, 50-Day $79,988, 200-Day $76,098. A daily close *above $76,814* is the first bullish signal.
3 Scenarios
*1. Base Case - Sideways (55%)*
Range *$74,800 - $77,200*. Weekend volume is thin. Max pain for options is $76,000. This is most likely.
*2. Bearish - Breakdown (30%)*
Daily close *below $74,762*. Next stops: *$73,200 -> $69,000 -> $68,000*. Wintermute sees $73k and $68k as downside targets if $75.5k fails.
*3. Bullish - Reversal (15%)*
Daily close *above $77,708* then *$79,100*. Then target *$82,150*. Needs CPI on Nov 10 to come cool + ETF inflows to return.
My Take
*Short-term: Bearish / Cautious*
Don't buy aggressively here. The structure is lower highs, lower lows since October. RSI at 37.9 can go to 30.
*Medium-term: Accumulation Zone*
$74k - $75k is where Short-Term Holder cost basis ($75,789) and Strategy's cost basis ($75,451) sit. Institutions are defending this area. If it holds, this is a good DCA zone.
*Strategy:*
- *If you are a trader:* Wait for daily close above $76,814 to go long, or below $74,762 to short. No trade in between.
- *If you are a holder:* DCA in small parts: 25% at $75k, 25% at $73k, 50% if it reclaims $80k.
- *Stop Loss:* Below $73,200 on daily close.
> Not financial advice. Crypto is high risk.#TradFiForBeginners #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds
