XRP is showing signs of recovery, but I'm paying just as much attention to what derivatives traders are doing as I am to whale activity.
Here's why.
Large XRP holders are increasing, price is testing $1.3080, and almost 80% of Bybit accounts are positioned LONG.
That sounds bullish, right?
Not necessarily. When too many traders enter the same direction, the market can become vulnerable to a sudden reversal.
๐ Whale Activity Is Picking Up
Santiment data shows that wallets holding at least 1 million XRP have reached 2,147, the highest level in 2026.
That's 28 additional wallets in just 10 days.
It's an encouraging signal, but wallet growth doesn't always mean direct accumulation. Transfers and custody movements can also affect these numbers.
โ ๏ธ The Bybit Data Makes Me Cautious
The XRP/USDT long-short account ratio recently showed:
Long: 79.49%
Short: 20.51%
Buyers clearly dominate positioning.
If demand continues, this could support another move higher. But a rejection could put crowded long positions at risk.
๐ Key Levels I'm Watching
Observed price: $1.3075
Resistance: $1.3080
Bullish targets:
$1.3200
$1.3400
Important supports:
$1.2914
$1.2840โ$1.2855
XRP is trading above its short-term moving averages, while the displayed candle volume reached approximately 1.47M.
Momentum is improving, but the $1.3080 breakout still needs confirmation.
Fundamentals Are Adding Another Layer
Ripple recently reported a business approaching a $900 million annualized product revenue run rate.
RLUSD market capitalization also reached approximately $2.6 billion.
These developments strengthen Ripple's business ecosystem, although they don't directly guarantee higher XRP prices.
My Strategy Right Now
I'm not rushing into a LONG position.
A 15-minute close above $1.3080 followed by a successful retest would make the bullish case more interesting.
On the other hand, losing $1.2914 after a rejection could weaken the recovery.
My current bias: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION.
I'd rather miss the first part of a move than enter blindly when the market is already crowded.
Let's hear your opinion:
Are whales preparing XRP for another rally, or could heavily crowded LONG positions become the biggest risk for buyers?