If Bitcoin always moved the way most retail investors expected based on major events and their potential outcomes, there wouldn't be much reason to analyze Bitcoin's on-chain data or liquidity flows.
It would actually make more sense to focus on predicting the outcomes of major events.
But that's not how the market really works.
In reality, price often moves first, and the narrative follows.
When the price moves as expected, analysts can simply use their original reasoning to explain what happened.
But when the price moves in the opposite direction, they can always find another reason to explain it and make the narrative fit.
"No matter which direction the market moves, there's always a convincing story to explain it afterward."
The real problem is that investors keep getting caught up in these narratives.
Without a clear framework of your own, you'll constantly be influenced by whatever story the market is telling at the time.
And when the most important moments arrive, you'll hesitate instead of taking action.
You end up missing opportunities or making poor decisions.
Then comes regret.
That regret turns into a desire to make up for what you missed or lost. That desire becomes greed, and greed eventually leads to another major mistake.
And the same cycle keeps repeating.
That's why I think it's far more important to focus on how major market players react to these events and how capital and liquidity actually move, rather than getting too caught up in the events themselves.
Above all, you need to build your own clear investment framework and act consistently based on it.
Even if your decision turns out to be wrong, that's okay.
If you followed a clear framework, you can look back, understand what went wrong, and use that experience to make better decisions next time.
Don't let market narratives dictate your decisions. Build your own framework, trust your analysis, and act accordingly.
It would actually make more sense to focus on predicting the outcomes of major events.
But that's not how the market really works.
In reality, price often moves first, and the narrative follows.
When the price moves as expected, analysts can simply use their original reasoning to explain what happened.
But when the price moves in the opposite direction, they can always find another reason to explain it and make the narrative fit.
"No matter which direction the market moves, there's always a convincing story to explain it afterward."
The real problem is that investors keep getting caught up in these narratives.
Without a clear framework of your own, you'll constantly be influenced by whatever story the market is telling at the time.
And when the most important moments arrive, you'll hesitate instead of taking action.
You end up missing opportunities or making poor decisions.
Then comes regret.
That regret turns into a desire to make up for what you missed or lost. That desire becomes greed, and greed eventually leads to another major mistake.
And the same cycle keeps repeating.
That's why I think it's far more important to focus on how major market players react to these events and how capital and liquidity actually move, rather than getting too caught up in the events themselves.
Above all, you need to build your own clear investment framework and act consistently based on it.
Even if your decision turns out to be wrong, that's okay.
If you followed a clear framework, you can look back, understand what went wrong, and use that experience to make better decisions next time.
Don't let market narratives dictate your decisions. Build your own framework, trust your analysis, and act accordingly.