US midterms TODAY. Here's what JPMorgan thinks happens to markets in each scenario:
435 House seats + 35 Senate seats + 36 governorships up for grabs. Result determines if Trump keeps Congress support or has to negotiate every move.
JPM's 4 scenarios (probability + expected $SPX reaction):
Dem sweep (66%): -0.25%. Fear = more AI regulation. JPM says any dip is a buy.
Split Congress, Dem House + GOP Senate (26%): +0.5% to +1%.
GOP sweep (7%): +1% to +1.25%. Status quo, no new regulatory risks.
GOP House + Dem Senate (1%): +0.25% to +0.75%.
For crypto:
CLARITY Act already died in Senate in Sept. Dem House makes it even harder to pass.
BUT: $BTC rallied after the last 3 midterms. +24% in 2014, +45% in 2018, +92% in 2022.
No JPM scenario predicts a major dump. Since 1930, $SPX averages +13% in the 12 months post-midterms, regardless of winner.
Historically bullish setup. Don't fade it.
435 House seats + 35 Senate seats + 36 governorships up for grabs. Result determines if Trump keeps Congress support or has to negotiate every move.
JPM's 4 scenarios (probability + expected $SPX reaction):
Dem sweep (66%): -0.25%. Fear = more AI regulation. JPM says any dip is a buy.
Split Congress, Dem House + GOP Senate (26%): +0.5% to +1%.
GOP sweep (7%): +1% to +1.25%. Status quo, no new regulatory risks.
GOP House + Dem Senate (1%): +0.25% to +0.75%.
For crypto:
CLARITY Act already died in Senate in Sept. Dem House makes it even harder to pass.
BUT: $BTC rallied after the last 3 midterms. +24% in 2014, +45% in 2018, +92% in 2022.
No JPM scenario predicts a major dump. Since 1930, $SPX averages +13% in the 12 months post-midterms, regardless of winner.
Historically bullish setup. Don't fade it.
