This week could be the most volatile of the year. Elections, mega earnings, and jobs data all dropping in 5 days.
Where we stand:
Friday was brutal. $SPX down 1.8%, Nasdaq tanked 2.9% — worst day since June. Intel and Reddit collapsed 30%.
October wiped $2 TRILLION from big tech alone. Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025.
What to watch:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (high correlation with $BTC) + Apple earnings. Expecting $113B revenue. Apple is 7% of Nasdaq 100 — if it misses, everything bleeds.
Tuesday: US midterm elections. Democrats favored for the House. Also JOLTS jobs data + AMD earnings (critical for chip sector).
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls.
Friday: Non-farm payrolls. Consensus ~55k jobs (Sept was 29k), unemployment at 4.2%.
Why jobs matter: Strong employment gives the Fed ammo to hike in December. Weak data reduces rate hike odds — bullish for risk assets.
Hidden alpha: 84% of Novembers in midterm election years close green for $SPX. Pre-election dips are usually buy opportunities, not the top.
Where we stand:
Friday was brutal. $SPX down 1.8%, Nasdaq tanked 2.9% — worst day since June. Intel and Reddit collapsed 30%.
October wiped $2 TRILLION from big tech alone. Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025.
What to watch:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (high correlation with $BTC) + Apple earnings. Expecting $113B revenue. Apple is 7% of Nasdaq 100 — if it misses, everything bleeds.
Tuesday: US midterm elections. Democrats favored for the House. Also JOLTS jobs data + AMD earnings (critical for chip sector).
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls.
Friday: Non-farm payrolls. Consensus ~55k jobs (Sept was 29k), unemployment at 4.2%.
Why jobs matter: Strong employment gives the Fed ammo to hike in December. Weak data reduces rate hike odds — bullish for risk assets.
Hidden alpha: 84% of Novembers in midterm election years close green for $SPX. Pre-election dips are usually buy opportunities, not the top.
