$XLM is ~$0.1718 at 07:12 ICT Oct 31 on Binance spot (+5.9% 24h), after a flush to $0.1577 on Oct 30, its lowest price since Aug 19. Price is back inside the range it lost, and Stellar has two dated upgrade votes coming in November. I like the reclaim, but I'd rather buy the range floor than the middle.

🔥 What's moving it

• The flush: XLM sat in a $0.166–0.175 range from Oct 24 to Oct 29. The 03:00 ICT 4H candle on Oct 30 broke it (low $0.1604), the next one wicked to $0.1577, and buyers took it back above $0.17 the same day. The Oct 30 daily closed at $0.1709 after a $0.1577 low.

• Wallet distribution: on Oct 29, at Stellar's Meridian conference in Lisbon, one of the largest self-custodial wallets made Stellar a default network. Every existing account there now has a Stellar address and can hold XLM, trustline assets and Soroban tokens without setup.

• Usage: the Stellar Development Foundation reports $55.6B of payment volume on Stellar in 2025, up 52% year over year.

• Upgrade calendar: Bell (Protocol 30) adds muxed contract addresses, post-quantum (ML-DSA) signature checks for smart contracts, and millisecond ledger timing. Validators vote on testnet Nov 3 and on mainnet Nov 23 (both 17:00 UTC). Dates can change and the upgrade only happens if validators approve.

📊 Daily (1D)

The trend is still down: XLM is about -27% from the $0.2371 Sep 29 high, and price is below the 1D EMA20 (~$0.1778) and EMA50 (~$0.1858). What changed is the Oct 30 candle: a long lower wick to $0.1577 and a close back inside the range. Wilder RSI(14) 1D ~42, so not stretched.

⏱️ 4H

4H is back above the EMA20 (~$0.1692) and EMA50 (~$0.1713), with Wilder RSI ~54. The range floor ($0.1663–0.1695) and the 4H EMA20 sit together, which is where I want to buy. Overhead, the Oct 28–29 highs at $0.1745–0.1752 are the first test.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $0.1680–0.1695 (range floor + 4H EMA20)

• TP1: $0.1745–0.1755 (Oct 28–29 highs, ~1.5–1.8R from $0.16875)

• TP2: $0.1780–0.1800 (1D EMA20 + Oct 19–23 highs, ~2.5–3.0R)

• Out: 4H close below $0.1655 (stop $0.1650, risk ~2.2%)

• Bull trigger: a 4H close above $0.1755 puts $0.178–0.180 in play

• Bear case: losing $0.1655 again means the reclaim failed and the $0.1577 low gets retested

💭 My take

I like this more than a breakout chase: the stop is tight (~2.2%), the wick shows real buyers at $0.158–0.160, and there is a dated reason to watch XLM through November. What I don't like: the daily trend is still lower highs, BTC is still under its 1D EMAs near $77K, and wallet news doesn't always turn into buying. So it's a range trade first: trim at TP1, and the Nov 3 testnet vote is not a reason to hold through a 4H close under $0.1655.

Would you bid $XLM at $0.169, or wait for a 4H close above $0.1755? 👇

NFA. DYOR.