$ZRO is ~$1.691 at 15:23 ICT Oct 30 on Binance spot, +4% in 24h. Between 03:00 and 11:00 ICT it flushed to $1.417, the lowest print since Sep 23, then ripped to $1.705 within the same session. That is −21% from yesterday's $1.800 spike and +20% back off the low. Nice wick. I still want the retest, not the top of it.

🔥 What's moving it

• Oct 29: LayerZero and Loon announced CADC, the Canadian dollar stablecoin (~60% of CAD stablecoin supply), will move natively across chains on the OFT standard. Five verifiers secure it, including Fidelity's Center for Applied Technologies, Google Cloud and Deutsche Telekom MMS.

• Nov 30: Zero mainnet and ATLAS go live together (date set Oct 20). After venue rebates, 75% of Open ATLAS fees are planned to buy and burn ZRO. Burn size depends on real trading volume.

• The move: yesterday's 19:00 ICT 4H candle spiked to $1.800 and got sold. The flush candles at 03:00 and 07:00 ICT traded ~$11.7M USDT on Binance spot; the 03:00 candle (~$6.3M) was the heaviest 4H since the Oct 20 unlock day.

• Overhang: ~23.6M ZRO unlocked Oct 20 and another ~23.3M is due Nov 20. LayerZero is also ending default DVN/executor support on low-activity chains (Metis from Oct 30).

📊 Daily (1D)

ZRO topped at $2.483 on Oct 12 and bled lower from there. Today's candle wicked under the Sep 24–28 lows ($1.423–1.429) and closed back above the 1D EMA50 (~$1.658). The 1D EMA20 (~$1.774) sits right on the Oct 28–29 highs, so that is the first wall.

Wilder RSI(14) ~47 (yesterday closed ~39). Recovering, not overheated.

⏱️ 4H

The flush swept every low of the Oct 24–29 range ($1.597–1.800). Price is back above the 4H EMA20 (~$1.673) but still under the EMA50 (~$1.728). Wilder RSI(14) ~51.

A dip into $1.635–1.660 retests the 1D EMA50 and 4H EMA20 together. A 4H close under $1.590 puts price back below the Oct 27 lows and the reclaim has failed.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $1.635–1.660 (1D EMA50 + 4H EMA20)

• TP1: $1.760–1.780 (Oct 28–29 highs + 1D EMA20), ~1.8–2.1R from $1.6475

• TP2: $1.850–1.867 (Oct 23 high), ~3.2–3.5R

• Out: 4H close below $1.590 (stop $1.585, risk ~3.8%)

• Bull trigger: a 4H close above $1.800 (Oct 29 rejection) opens the Oct 23 high

• Bear case: losing $1.590 sends price back to the $1.417–1.430 flush low

💭 My take

I like a wick that gets bought back the same day, and LayerZero has a dated event on Nov 30 with a burn attached. But there is a supply event 10 days before it, and the buyback only matters if ATLAS gets real volume. Chasing $1.69 is only ~0.7–0.8R to TP1. I'll leave a bid at $1.635–1.660 and accept a miss.

Bid the retest at $1.65, or wait for a 4H close above $1.800? 👇

NFA. DYOR.