I keep coming back to the same line on the $BTC chart this morning, and honestly it isn't giving me much comfort: $80,000. Bitcoin slipped back under it after the weekend selloff, trading around $80,200 at last check, and this is now a failed bounce rather than a recovery — three straight weeks of declines, $746 million walked out of the BTC and ETH ETFs in the last fully reported session, and the tape closed near the bottom of its range.
My read, for what it's worth: the sellers still own this. RSI is sitting near 41, MACD is negative, and Bitcoin has lost its 50-day average, which had been the launchpad for the whole multi-month advance. The levels I'm actually watching are $79,745 and $79,145 underneath — lose those on a daily close and the next conversation is $77,677 (the 100-day EMA) and then $75,000. Above, $80,925 caps today's range, and a real reclaim needs a daily close back over $82,500.
The catch is Wednesday. The Fed announces at 2pm ET, with PCE inflation the next day, plus Brent crude at an eight-month high near $116 and the 10-year at 5% — that's a lot of macro that could override any chart in either direction. So I'm not chasing a short into the announcement, and I'm not buying the dip on hope either. If we hold $79,000 into the Fed, I'd lean toward the bounce having legs; if we close under it, I'd expect the drift toward $77,000 to accelerate.
What would change my mind completely: a daily close back above $82,500. Until then, my bias is cautious-bearish, sized small, with the Fed doing the deciding. How are you playing this week — positioned before Wednesday, or waiting for the announcement to pick a side?
Not financial advice.
My read, for what it's worth: the sellers still own this. RSI is sitting near 41, MACD is negative, and Bitcoin has lost its 50-day average, which had been the launchpad for the whole multi-month advance. The levels I'm actually watching are $79,745 and $79,145 underneath — lose those on a daily close and the next conversation is $77,677 (the 100-day EMA) and then $75,000. Above, $80,925 caps today's range, and a real reclaim needs a daily close back over $82,500.
The catch is Wednesday. The Fed announces at 2pm ET, with PCE inflation the next day, plus Brent crude at an eight-month high near $116 and the 10-year at 5% — that's a lot of macro that could override any chart in either direction. So I'm not chasing a short into the announcement, and I'm not buying the dip on hope either. If we hold $79,000 into the Fed, I'd lean toward the bounce having legs; if we close under it, I'd expect the drift toward $77,000 to accelerate.
What would change my mind completely: a daily close back above $82,500. Until then, my bias is cautious-bearish, sized small, with the Fed doing the deciding. How are you playing this week — positioned before Wednesday, or waiting for the announcement to pick a side?
Not financial advice.
