Funding on $SUI has flipped negative while open interest in coin terms grew 4.5% in 24h. Price is sitting on its lower Bollinger band at $0.92, with two rollouts and a protocol gas cut landing in the same window.
(Data: Binance USDT-M perps, snapshot 2026-10-26 00:31 Taipei time.)
## 1) Why I'm Bullish
**Derivatives positioning**
- Last $0.9198, 24h range $0.9029–$0.9425, roughly flat (-0.14%) on 156.6M USDT of quote volume.
- Funding is -0.0033%, versus a +0.0042% average over the last 90 funding periods. Shorts are paying longs, which is unusual for SUI.
- OI is 111.18M SUI, up from 106.35M 24h ago (+4.5% in coin terms). New positions are opening while funding is negative, so part of that new OI is short.
- Top-trader long/short (positions) is 1.84, with 64.8% long, and it rose slightly over the last 3 hours.
- The 1h taker buy/sell ratio was 1.56 in the latest full hour, after four of the five prior hours were below 1.0.
From what I've seen, negative funding plus growing OI right on a support level is where shorts get crowded. Late shorts there tend to become fuel for the bounce, not for the breakdown.
**Technical picture**
- 4h RSI is 31.5, close to oversold. Daily RSI is 38.5, and 1h RSI is 44.2.
- 1h MACD has crossed above its signal line (-0.0079 vs -0.0090), the first sign of momentum turning on the lowest timeframe.
- The lower Bollinger bands on 1h, 4h and 1d all sit between $0.900 and $0.902. That band overlaps the $0.9029 24h low, which is a clean, well-defined floor.
**Fundamentals**
- Protocol v139 went live on Oct 23 (UTC). It cuts the gas charge for reading Move packages by about 99%, aimed at making onchain order books cheaper to run. [SuiWire]
- At Sui Basecamp (Oct 7), Sui Tunnels hit 40.68M peak TPS, verified by CertiK. These are offchain programmable channels that settle to mainnet, not L1 throughput. [Sui blog]
- Samsung Wallet's USDC feature, with Sui named as an infrastructure partner, is scheduled for the final week of October and targets 82M compatible US Galaxy devices. The SUI token itself is not supported at launch. [TokenPost]
- Hashi, which brings BTC collateral to Sui, has a phased mainnet rollout planned for late October, backed by over $500M in partner capital commitments. [TokenPost]
- DefiLlama puts Sui TVL at $472M (Oct 24), up about 17% from its mid-August low near $403M. [DefiLlama]
In my experience, a market that trades flat into a cluster of real catalysts while shorts pay to hold is often mispricing the upside more than the downside.
## 2) Long Setup
- **Support zone:** $0.900–$0.905. This is where the lower Bollinger bands on 1h, 4h and 1d meet the 24h low.
- **Resistance:** $0.9425–$0.9443 (24h high and the 1h upper band), $0.955 (4h mid-band), and $1.003–$1.009 (4h 20-bar high and upper band).
- **Left-side entry:** scale in between $0.903 and $0.912. This is a small starter only.
- **Right-side entry:** add on a 1h close above $0.9443, which reclaims the 24h high.
- **TP1:** $0.955. **TP2:** $1.003.
- **SL / invalidation:** a 4h close below $0.885. That means the shared lower-band floor has failed.
## 3) What Would Break the Thesis
- **Trend:** the daily MACD is still below its signal line (-0.0220 vs -0.0028), and price is under the daily mid-band at $1.032. This setup is a countertrend bounce trade at support, not a confirmed trend reversal.
- **Unlocks:** the trackers disagree on size and date, so I'd treat Oct 31–Nov 3 as the risk window.
- Tokenomist lists 13.15M SUI on Nov 1, about 0.32% of released supply.
- Nox Terminal lists 6.07M on Oct 31 plus 14.35M on Nov 1 to Early Contributors and Stake Subsidies.
- Every one of these figures is under 1% of supply, but supply hitting a thin bid can still push price through support. [Tokenomist, Nox Terminal, CryptoTicker]
- **TVL:** TVL is still about 12% below its late-September level, around $540M, so the onchain recovery is not yet clean.
- **Event risk:** if the Samsung or Hashi rollouts slip, or land with little usage, the catalysts become "sell the news."
- **Crowding:** a 1.84 top-trader long/short ratio means longs are crowded too. If $0.90 breaks, those longs become the fuel instead.
**Position control**
- Set the stop first, then size from it. At the left-side zone, the gap to $0.885 is roughly 2–3%.
- Keep the starter at no more than one third of the planned size, and add only on the right-side trigger.
- Use low leverage. Leverage you can survive a wick with matters more than being early.
- Take partial profit at TP1 and move the stop to breakeven.
- A stop is a fact, not a suggestion. If the 4h closes below $0.885, the thesis is wrong and I'm out.
*Not investment advice. Do your own research and manage your own risk.*
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Sources:
- Binance USDT-M Futures public API (ticker, premiumIndex, fundingRate, openInterest, openInterestHist, topLongShortPositionRatio, takerlongshortRatio, klines), via fapi.binance.com
- DefiLlama, Sui chain TVL: https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/Sui
- SuiWire, protocol 139: https://suiwire.com/news/sui-package-gas-cut-99-percent-protocol-139
- Sui blog, 40M TPS: https://www.sui.io/blog/sui-sets-record-for-highest-verified-throughput-settled-to-a-blockchain
- TokenPost, Hashi and Samsung Wallet: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/40445
- Tokenomist: https://tokenomist.ai/wenunlocks/sui
- Nox Terminal: https://terminalnox.com/unlocks/SUI
- CryptoTicker: https://cryptoticker.io/en/sui-token-unlock-lockup-november/