BREAKING: prediction market open interest hits a new all-time high of $2.8b.
since august, capital tied up in active prediction market positions has climbed from around $1.1b to $2.8b.
the market is still heavily concentrated:
> kalshi: 71%
> polymarket: 24%
together, they account for roughly 95% of total open interest.
open interest measures the value of positions that remain active, rather than the amount traded over a period. its growth suggests more capital is being committed to predicting real-world outcomes.
these markets now cover everything from elections and sports to crypto prices and Fed decisions.
the next thing to watch is whether this growth spreads to more platforms or stays concentrated in kalshi and polymarket.
since august, capital tied up in active prediction market positions has climbed from around $1.1b to $2.8b.
the market is still heavily concentrated:
> kalshi: 71%
> polymarket: 24%
together, they account for roughly 95% of total open interest.
open interest measures the value of positions that remain active, rather than the amount traded over a period. its growth suggests more capital is being committed to predicting real-world outcomes.
these markets now cover everything from elections and sports to crypto prices and Fed decisions.
the next thing to watch is whether this growth spreads to more platforms or stays concentrated in kalshi and polymarket.