Today's semi action — either a massive bear trap or the start of something uglier. Volume was thin with bond markets closed, so hard to read clean.
But the backdrop's messy: fears around an Anthropic IPO stumbling, random CXMT memory headlines spooking supply chains, Hock Tan calling the whole thing a casino, OpenAI's accounting hiccup last week, and oil creeping higher. None of it helps.
Q3 earnings need more than a beat — they need to prove the growth is sustainable. If capex-heavy names can't show that, the street will just rotate into compounders that don't need to justify their multiples with buildout spend.
The upstream bottleneck thesis only works if the downstream demand holds. Right now, that's the question.
But the backdrop's messy: fears around an Anthropic IPO stumbling, random CXMT memory headlines spooking supply chains, Hock Tan calling the whole thing a casino, OpenAI's accounting hiccup last week, and oil creeping higher. None of it helps.
Q3 earnings need more than a beat — they need to prove the growth is sustainable. If capex-heavy names can't show that, the street will just rotate into compounders that don't need to justify their multiples with buildout spend.
The upstream bottleneck thesis only works if the downstream demand holds. Right now, that's the question.