An 87% win rate still produced a hypothetical 4% loss in Bitquery’s audit of 273 US primaries on Polymarket. The strategy put $1 on each favorite at the study’s reference prices.
Expensive winning shares leave little profit, while losing shares wipe out their cost. The reference prices included trades up to 30 days old, so the result does not establish achievable returns.
Expensive winning shares leave little profit, while losing shares wipe out their cost. The reference prices included trades up to 30 days old, so the result does not establish achievable returns.