$TLT call volume just printed 14.9M contracts over the past month — roughly 3x January levels. That's a massive bet that long-term yields are coming down, with the 30-year sitting near 5.6%, close to a 24-year high.
I'm not reading this as a big bond love fest. Some of it is hedging, some is pre-CPI positioning. But the flow is clear: a lot of capital thinks rates are topping out here.
If they're right, that's fuel for rate-sensitive names and small caps. But I'm not chasing it yet. Watching CPI Wednesday first, then the Nov 4 refunding. Let the data confirm the flow before committing size.
I'm not reading this as a big bond love fest. Some of it is hedging, some is pre-CPI positioning. But the flow is clear: a lot of capital thinks rates are topping out here.
If they're right, that's fuel for rate-sensitive names and small caps. But I'm not chasing it yet. Watching CPI Wednesday first, then the Nov 4 refunding. Let the data confirm the flow before committing size.