Yes — this is exactly the important issue with SUI. Looking at your screenshot, it feels like SUI is repeatedly moving in a broad range rather than establishing a sustained uptrend.

Why SUI keeps getting stuck around ~$1.2–$1.5

1. Massive remaining supply is the biggest reason.

Your screenshot shows:

Circulating: 4.12B SUI

Maximum: 10B SUI

FDV: $12.41B

Market cap: $5.11B

So only about 41% of the maximum supply is circulating. CoinMarketCap currently reports ~4.11B circulating out of the 10B maximum.

That means new SUI continues entering circulation. Even when demand increases, some of that demand can be absorbed by newly released tokens.

And this isn't just theoretical: SUI had a 13.26M-token unlock around October 1, and the next scheduled unlock is about 13.15M SUI on November 1.

2. The market is selling into rallies

This is probably what you're noticing.

For example:

$0.35 → $1.50

then correction

$1.50 → $1.20

then bounce

$1.20 → $1.50

then selling again.

When traders bought much lower, $1.30–$1.50 becomes a natural profit-taking zone.

So SUI needs substantially stronger demand before it can permanently break that ceiling.

3. But I would NOT interpret this as "SUI is dead"

This is the important distinction.

SUI has an actual Layer-1 ecosystem and the token has utility for gas, staking, governance and applications.

The Sui Foundation is also currently pushing the network toward AI/agentic applications and high-throughput infrastructure.

So fundamentally, SUI is much stronger than PEPE.

The problem is token economics + market valuation, not necessarily the technology.

The interesting part for your investment decision

At your screenshot price of $1.246:

If SUI reaches $2

Market cap ≈ $8.2B on current circulating supply.

That's quite achievable in a strong altcoin market.

If SUI reaches $3

Market cap ≈ $12.4B on today's circulating supply.

Again, possible, but it requires considerably more capital.

If SUI reaches $5

Market cap ≈ $20.6B using today's circulating supply.

And because more SUI will circulate over time, the required valuation would be higher.

That's why I wouldn't simply say:

"SUI was $5.35 before, therefore it will go back to $5."

It can, but the supply situation is different now.

My current interpretation

SUI at $1.24 is not expensive compared with its previous ATH, but the unlock schedule makes the path upward harder.

I'd think about it like this:

$1.0–1.2 → accumulation/support zone

$1.3–1.5 → important resistance

$1.5+ → confirmation that buyers are absorbing supply

$2 → major psychological/market-cap milestone

$3–5 → requires a strong crypto/altcoin bull phase

And importantly, the recent data shows SUI has already had a strong rally and then experienced profit-taking/unlock concerns, which explains some of the sideways behavior.

So your observation is correct

SUI isn't failing because it can't pump. It's struggling because every pump is meeting supply and profit-taking.

If you're comparing SUI vs PEPE specifically, this creates an interesting trade-off:

SUI = better fundamentals + lower meme risk, but dilution slows the price.

PEPE = almost no future supply dilution, but much weaker fundamentals and much higher sentiment risk.

If your goal is maximum return while keeping risk reasonably controlled, I would still prefer SUI as the core position, but I wouldn't put 100% into it.