U.S. grains weaken on inventories and demand, while sugar breaks to an 18-month high
🌽 Corn led the weekly decline after U.S. stocks as of September 1 reached 2.095 billion bushels, above all market estimates and roughly 173 million bushels higher than USDA’s previous projection. December corn lost about 30.5 cents over the week, while drier Midwest weather remained favorable for harvesting and kept near-term supply pressure elevated.
🫘 Soybeans sent a more mixed signal, with stocks at just 315 million bushels, below both market expectations and the year-earlier level. However, soybeans were excluded from the agricultural products covered by the U.S.–China tariff reduction agreement, leaving demand concerns strong enough to outweigh the relatively tighter balance sheet.
🌾 Wheat held up better as inventories remained well below year-ago levels and production came in close to expectations. This helped Chicago wheat avoid the sharper adjustment seen in corn, although a stronger USD and favorable harvest conditions continued to limit upside.
🍬 Sugar moved in the opposite direction, with ICE raw sugar rising toward 19 cents/lb, its highest level in roughly 18 months. Prices were supported by weaker Brazilian output, relatively tight Indian inventories, and the potential for mills to continue favoring ethanol while energy prices remain elevated.
📅 Attention now turns to the October 9 WASDE report. Markets will watch how much of the unexpectedly large corn inventory is incorporated into the 2026/27 balance sheet, while soybeans may still need clearer Chinese buying signals to decouple from broader grain-market pressure.
#Agriculture $TRB $TREE
🌽 Corn led the weekly decline after U.S. stocks as of September 1 reached 2.095 billion bushels, above all market estimates and roughly 173 million bushels higher than USDA’s previous projection. December corn lost about 30.5 cents over the week, while drier Midwest weather remained favorable for harvesting and kept near-term supply pressure elevated.
🫘 Soybeans sent a more mixed signal, with stocks at just 315 million bushels, below both market expectations and the year-earlier level. However, soybeans were excluded from the agricultural products covered by the U.S.–China tariff reduction agreement, leaving demand concerns strong enough to outweigh the relatively tighter balance sheet.
🌾 Wheat held up better as inventories remained well below year-ago levels and production came in close to expectations. This helped Chicago wheat avoid the sharper adjustment seen in corn, although a stronger USD and favorable harvest conditions continued to limit upside.
🍬 Sugar moved in the opposite direction, with ICE raw sugar rising toward 19 cents/lb, its highest level in roughly 18 months. Prices were supported by weaker Brazilian output, relatively tight Indian inventories, and the potential for mills to continue favoring ethanol while energy prices remain elevated.
📅 Attention now turns to the October 9 WASDE report. Markets will watch how much of the unexpectedly large corn inventory is incorporated into the 2026/27 balance sheet, while soybeans may still need clearer Chinese buying signals to decouple from broader grain-market pressure.
#Agriculture $TRB $TREE
