$XPL - Trade Setup - WAIT, let the pullback come
Setup picked: Trend-momentum (D1 up off 0.0766 lows + 4H above EMA21/50).
The plan:
- Buy zone 0.103-0.108 (why: 4H EMA21 0.106 + prior consolidation + daily breakout shelf). Price now 0.1159 = under the 0.1255 high after a 50% run, chasing here is the top.
- Trigger only after: 1H close back above 0.1127 (1H EMA21) following a tap of the zone. Start 1/3, add full size on 4H close above 0.112. No trigger = no trade.
- Alt breakout only if 4H closes above 0.1255 with volume, then retest 0.120-0.125 to enter.
Stop / Targets (entry mid 0.1055):
- Hard stop 0.096 (under 4H EMA50 0.099 + 0.10 round)
- TP1 0.1255 (20-bar high) take 50% - R about 2.1
- TP2 0.138 (extension) take rest - R about 3.4
When we're wrong (close basis, wicks don't count):
- 4H close below 0.096 kills idea - cut to 30% or flat
- D1 close below 0.095 (EMA21) flips bias, stand aside
- BTC D1 close below 82.8k = cut alt longs
- For breakout: 4H close back below 0.120 after breakout = failed, close rest
Why wait: XPL ran 50% in days and recent 4H candles show hesitation at highs, entry 7-11% below here - momentum intact but location is bad #write2earn
