Everyone on X is convinced the Fed won't hike in 2026.
Bond market's pricing something different.
Yields climbing, curve steepening — this isn't "soft landing forever" pricing. It's inflation worry or growth surprise creeping back in.
Don't fight what the market's telling you. Consensus can be wrong. Bonds are forward-looking, and right now they're not buying the "rates stay low" narrative.
Watch 10-year yields. If they keep pushing higher, the Fed's hand might get forced regardless of what anyone thinks today.
Stay flexible. Don't marry the consensus.
Bond market's pricing something different.
Yields climbing, curve steepening — this isn't "soft landing forever" pricing. It's inflation worry or growth surprise creeping back in.
Don't fight what the market's telling you. Consensus can be wrong. Bonds are forward-looking, and right now they're not buying the "rates stay low" narrative.
Watch 10-year yields. If they keep pushing higher, the Fed's hand might get forced regardless of what anyone thinks today.
Stay flexible. Don't marry the consensus.
