$BTC MVRV momentum oscillator just printed positive for the first time since October 9, 2025.
That is 329 consecutive days underwater.
The longest stretch since the 2022 bear.
In the modern era this exact setup has appeared three times: a run of 329+ straight days below zero, then a green flip above zero.
July 2015. April 2019. January 2023.
Here is what came next.
3 months: -21%, +121%, +23% → median +23%
6 months: +40%, +58%, +24% → median +40%
9 months: +37%, +57%, +45% → median +45%
12 months: +114%, +39%, +82% → median +82%
18 months: +160%, +105%, +181% → median +160%
24 months: +669%, +978%, +337% → median +669%
Applied to today's $80,000 print, the median path implies:
3 months: $98,533
6 months: $112,021
9 months: $116,358
12 months: $145,894
18 months: $208,010
24 months: $615,167
Three observations, so treat the tails with respect.
The 24-month mark lands inside a cycle top every single time, which is precisely where you would expect it to land.
The durable read is simpler than the price targets.
Every one of those flips left Bitcoin higher a year later, and the worst 12-month outcome was +39%.
The oscillator spent 329 days telling you the market was exhausted. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
That is 329 consecutive days underwater.
The longest stretch since the 2022 bear.
In the modern era this exact setup has appeared three times: a run of 329+ straight days below zero, then a green flip above zero.
July 2015. April 2019. January 2023.
Here is what came next.
3 months: -21%, +121%, +23% → median +23%
6 months: +40%, +58%, +24% → median +40%
9 months: +37%, +57%, +45% → median +45%
12 months: +114%, +39%, +82% → median +82%
18 months: +160%, +105%, +181% → median +160%
24 months: +669%, +978%, +337% → median +669%
Applied to today's $80,000 print, the median path implies:
3 months: $98,533
6 months: $112,021
9 months: $116,358
12 months: $145,894
18 months: $208,010
24 months: $615,167
Three observations, so treat the tails with respect.
The 24-month mark lands inside a cycle top every single time, which is precisely where you would expect it to land.
The durable read is simpler than the price targets.
Every one of those flips left Bitcoin higher a year later, and the worst 12-month outcome was +39%.
The oscillator spent 329 days telling you the market was exhausted. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
