Based on this data, the market direction is still mixed, but strong volatility could occur in either direction.
š My Market View
1. Nvidia Earnings ā š„ Biggest Catalyst
If Nvidia beats revenue and earnings expectations and provides strong guidance, tech stocks and the crypto market could see strong risk-on momentum. However, weak guidance could trigger a broader market sell-off.
2. Fed + PCE ā ā ļø Most Important
If Core PCE comes in below the expected 3.2%, expectations for rate cuts could increase ā bullish for BTC and altcoins.
If inflation comes in higher than expected, the Fed could remain hawkish ā more pressure on BTC.
3. U.S.-Canada Trade War ā š“ Bearish Risk
Tariffs and potential retaliation could hurt global risk sentiment. If trade tensions escalate, both stocks and crypto could face increased downside volatility.
š Crypto Market Outlook
My base case is high short-term volatility with a possible shakeout, followed by a clearer direction once Nvidia earnings and key macroeconomic data are released.
š¢ Bullish Scenario: Strong Nvidia + softer PCE + dovish Fed ā š BTC & Altcoins could pump.
š“ Bearish Scenario: Weak Nvidia + hot PCE + hawkish Fed + escalating trade tensions ā š $BTC & Altcoins could face a correction.