Ran my own numbers on TMX's TGE structure before deciding whether the Alpha airdrop chatter is worth acting on, and the vesting design tells a more specific story than "20% unlocks at TGE."
Total supply is fixed at 1B, ~20% (200M) circulating at TGE. But that 200M isn't one uniform block — Community (15%, 150M) and Liquidity Provision (5%, 50M) are both fully unlocked day one with zero cliff, while Team (15%), Advisors (3%), and Investors (28%) all sit behind a full 12-month cliff before a single token vests. That's the entire insider allocation — 46% of total supply — completely absent from any TGE sell pressure calculation. The only piece with partial early movement is Ecosystem (29%), which clears a 1-month cliff before starting a 48-month linear release, meaning even that portion trickles rather than dumps.
So the actual sell-pressure question at TGE isn't "is 20% unlocking," it's "who's holding that 20%." If most of the Community allocation ends up going to airdrop claimants who flip immediately, that's meaningfully different pressure than the same tokens sitting in vaults or being used as protocol incentives.
On the Alpha threshold guessing game — I'd rather anchor to a different comparable than most people are using. Recent Alpha airdrops on similarly-sized protocols have clustered in a fairly wide range depending on how aggressive the points-farming was in the run-up, so I'm treating any single-number prediction as a rough band, not a fact. Current pre-market quotes floating around the 0.18u range put a 1% ecosystem allocation (10M tokens) somewhere near 1.8M U in total value — but pre-market pricing this far out is thin and moves fast, so I'd hold that number loosely too.
Not trying to call an exact threshold. Just trying to separate what's actually structural (the vesting schedule, which is fixed and knowable) from what's still speculative (the exact points cutoff, which nobody outside the team actually knows yet).
@TermMax #TermMax
Total supply is fixed at 1B, ~20% (200M) circulating at TGE. But that 200M isn't one uniform block — Community (15%, 150M) and Liquidity Provision (5%, 50M) are both fully unlocked day one with zero cliff, while Team (15%), Advisors (3%), and Investors (28%) all sit behind a full 12-month cliff before a single token vests. That's the entire insider allocation — 46% of total supply — completely absent from any TGE sell pressure calculation. The only piece with partial early movement is Ecosystem (29%), which clears a 1-month cliff before starting a 48-month linear release, meaning even that portion trickles rather than dumps.
So the actual sell-pressure question at TGE isn't "is 20% unlocking," it's "who's holding that 20%." If most of the Community allocation ends up going to airdrop claimants who flip immediately, that's meaningfully different pressure than the same tokens sitting in vaults or being used as protocol incentives.
On the Alpha threshold guessing game — I'd rather anchor to a different comparable than most people are using. Recent Alpha airdrops on similarly-sized protocols have clustered in a fairly wide range depending on how aggressive the points-farming was in the run-up, so I'm treating any single-number prediction as a rough band, not a fact. Current pre-market quotes floating around the 0.18u range put a 1% ecosystem allocation (10M tokens) somewhere near 1.8M U in total value — but pre-market pricing this far out is thin and moves fast, so I'd hold that number loosely too.
Not trying to call an exact threshold. Just trying to separate what's actually structural (the vesting schedule, which is fixed and knowable) from what's still speculative (the exact points cutoff, which nobody outside the team actually knows yet).
@TermMax #TermMax
