Most people are pricing crypto protocols completely wrong.
Annualizing 30D revenue? That's fine for a snapshot, but useless for forward projections—especially for cyclical businesses sitting in a trough.
Take $HYPE as example:
1) Annualizing 30D revenue during a bear phase assumes we're never entering a bull market again. That's delusional.
2) Extrapolating current run-rate ignores exponential growth and new revenue streams launching constantly.
If you annualized Hyperliquid's revenue in Q2 last year, you'd have priced in trough volume and completely missed HIP-3, HIP-4, Priority Fees, and Stablecoin Yield Sharing—all of which now drive the majority of fees and volume.
Why does crypto still do this?
In equities, you have management guidance and analyst coverage. Crypto has neither. You're forced to model the cycle yourself, price in new products, and project exponential scaling.
It's harder. But that's literally the job.
My take: $HYPE will scale earnings into the billions over the next few years, creating hundreds of billions in market cap.
So yeah, it looks expensive if you're anchored to last quarter's numbers. But it's dirt cheap if you're pricing 2027+ earnings.
Stop using legacy metrics for exponential businesses.
Annualizing 30D revenue? That's fine for a snapshot, but useless for forward projections—especially for cyclical businesses sitting in a trough.
Take $HYPE as example:
1) Annualizing 30D revenue during a bear phase assumes we're never entering a bull market again. That's delusional.
2) Extrapolating current run-rate ignores exponential growth and new revenue streams launching constantly.
If you annualized Hyperliquid's revenue in Q2 last year, you'd have priced in trough volume and completely missed HIP-3, HIP-4, Priority Fees, and Stablecoin Yield Sharing—all of which now drive the majority of fees and volume.
Why does crypto still do this?
In equities, you have management guidance and analyst coverage. Crypto has neither. You're forced to model the cycle yourself, price in new products, and project exponential scaling.
It's harder. But that's literally the job.
My take: $HYPE will scale earnings into the billions over the next few years, creating hundreds of billions in market cap.
So yeah, it looks expensive if you're anchored to last quarter's numbers. But it's dirt cheap if you're pricing 2027+ earnings.
Stop using legacy metrics for exponential businesses.