Earlier, I left out two weekly price action elements that are worth keeping on the radar. They’re not primary, but locally they can fill in a cleaner picture.
* RB 1W, $67,710 - $67,276 | This block formed after price reacted out of the lower part of the $72,460 - $65,770 FVG, which then kicked off the impulse that set the local low. What I’m waiting for is the sweep of the $67,276 fractal, the upper boundary of this RB. Technically, though, you can also expect a reaction straight out of the block, even if it’s only local, it’s still a reaction.
* iFVG 1W, $69,300 - $70,500 | The inverted weekly imbalance. When it flipped, the bigger $72,460 - $65,770 FVG had not formed yet. Back then I was watching this zone closely. Once the larger block appeared, I pulled the iFVG off the chart because it ran through the middle of it. But because of how these things work, the big FVG can be considered spent while the iFVG is still valid.
* These are all weekly price action elements, meaning potential targets for the current narrative. My short limits are already sitting near $67,300, in line with the plan.
* If the short activates, I’ll also double my Polymarket bet on BTC dropping below 55k in 2026. The price on the "Yes" side is already lower than where I bought a few months ago. The market is clearly becoming more and more convinced the cycle bottom is in.
* RB 1W, $67,710 - $67,276 | This block formed after price reacted out of the lower part of the $72,460 - $65,770 FVG, which then kicked off the impulse that set the local low. What I’m waiting for is the sweep of the $67,276 fractal, the upper boundary of this RB. Technically, though, you can also expect a reaction straight out of the block, even if it’s only local, it’s still a reaction.
* iFVG 1W, $69,300 - $70,500 | The inverted weekly imbalance. When it flipped, the bigger $72,460 - $65,770 FVG had not formed yet. Back then I was watching this zone closely. Once the larger block appeared, I pulled the iFVG off the chart because it ran through the middle of it. But because of how these things work, the big FVG can be considered spent while the iFVG is still valid.
* These are all weekly price action elements, meaning potential targets for the current narrative. My short limits are already sitting near $67,300, in line with the plan.
* If the short activates, I’ll also double my Polymarket bet on BTC dropping below 55k in 2026. The price on the "Yes" side is already lower than where I bought a few months ago. The market is clearly becoming more and more convinced the cycle bottom is in.