Bitcoin’s blistering run to an all-time high near $125,000 in October 2025 has given way to a rapid unwind, and on-chain signals suggest the market may be shifting from a late-cycle peak into a longer, more defensive phase. Price and sentiment - Within weeks of the October peak, Bitcoin tumbled toward the $60,000 area, pushing sentiment from late-cycle optimism into defensive positioning. The speed of the correction has raised the question: is this a short consolidation or the start of a deeper cyclical slowdown? What the on-chain data say - Top analyst Axel Adler points to the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric as a key read. That indicator — which measures long-term coin activity relative to holding behavior while filtering internal transfers — peaked at about 0.02676 in December 2025, roughly two months after the price ATH (a normal lag for cumulative on-chain series). - By mid‑February 2026 the metric had eased to about 0.02669 and sits below its 30‑ and 90‑day moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance. Historically, a falling liveliness signals a shift away from distribution toward accumulation by long-term holders. Historical context and possible timeline - Prior cycles show similar liveliness patterns preceding extended accumulation stretches. The 2020 accumulation lasted roughly 1.1 years, while the 2022–2024 cycle ran about 2.5 years. If history repeats, the current restructuring could extend into late 2026 or even mid‑2027. - Market participants would look for the 90‑day moving average to roll decisively under the 365‑day trend to confirm a fully established structural transition. Technical picture - Bitcoin’s weekly chart echoes the structural change: after the sharp drop from the ~$125,000 peak, price is now consolidating near $67,000. The breakdown below medium-term moving averages confirms weakening momentum, and repeated failures to reclaim the $90,000–$100,000 area bolster the argument for a bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. - The loss of the green mid‑cycle moving average — previously reliable dynamic support through 2024–2025 — is notable. The next major structural support sits around the longer-term red moving average in the mid‑$50,000s. Historically, prolonged trading beneath intermediate averages often precedes extended consolidation or deeper corrections. Volume dynamics - The recent selloff came with a volume spike consistent with distribution rather than orderly profit-taking. That said, subsequent moderation in volume could indicate that panic selling has, at least for now, cooled. Scenarios investors are watching - Stabilization above $60,000 would make a range-bound formation likely. - A decisive break below $60,000 would increase downside risk toward longer-term cost-basis supports. - Reclaiming the $80,000–$90,000 zone would be required to materially improve the broader technical outlook. Bottom line Traders and investors are watching both price action and on‑chain metrics like Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness to gauge whether Bitcoin is merely consolidating or entering a more protracted accumulation phase. Confirmation of a structural shift will hinge on how on‑chain trends and moving averages evolve over the coming months. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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