After years of rejections, Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally started trading last week. Speculators expected the event to boost Bitcoin’s price, but that did not happen. That led to total sales of about $4.7 billion, according to CryptoSlate research and data analyst James Van Straten
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index that has been in “extreme greed” with a score of 76 recently has plunged to neutral at 52. This is a positive sign as it shows that much of the froth may be out of the system.
With the "sell the news" event out of the way, traders are likely to focus on the macroeconomic data. All eyes are on the United States Federal Reserve, which is expected to start cutting rates as early as March, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data. If that happens, risk-assets are likely to do well.
Is the correction in Bitcoin and altcoins over? Could the major cryptocurrencies resume their uptrend in the short term? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned up from the 20-day exponential moving average (4,727) on Jan. 8, indicating that the uptrend remains intact and traders view the dips as a buying opportunity.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages indicate that buyers have the upper hand, but the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) warrants caution. If the value maintains above 4,800, the index is likely to ascend to the psychologically important level of 5,000.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA is the first support to keep an eye on. If this level gives way, it will suggest that the buying pressure is reducing. The index may then fall to the 50-day simple moving average (4,601).
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been consolidating in a downtrend near the 20-day EMA (102) for the past several days.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to pull the index to the critical support at 101.
On the upside, the bulls are likely to face selling at the 50-day SMA (103). A break and close above the 50-day SMA will suggest the start of a stronger recovery to 104.50. This level may again witness strong selling by the bears.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin broke and closed below the support line on Jan. 14, signaling that the bears are trying to make a comeback.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($43,693) has started to turn down, and the RSI is near 46, suggesting that the bears hold a slight edge.
Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, it will signal a shift in the sentiment from buying on dips to selling on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair may fall to $40,000 and later to $37,980.
Contrary to this assumption, if buyers overcome the barrier at $44,700, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair will then try to reach the psychologically important level of $50,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) is correcting in an uptrend with the bulls trying to keep the price above the immediate support at $2,458.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2,398) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the bulls are in command. If the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $2,400, it will signal strong buying on dips. The ETH/USDT pair may then rally to $2,717. If this level is scaled, the next stop could be $3,000.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and plunges below $2,400. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($2,282) and eventually to $2,100.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($301) on Jan. 12, but the bears could not sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $291.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
That started a relief rally, which picked up momentum on Jan. 15. If buyers hold the price above $317, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $338 and thereafter dash to $350. The $350 level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair may soar to $400.
The important level to watch on the downside is $291 because a slump below it could tug the price to the neckline.
XRP price analysis
Attempts by the bulls to start a recovery in XRP (XRP) stalled near the downtrend line on Jan. 11, suggesting that the bears remain in control.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.59) and the RSI below 43 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The selling could accelerate if the price plummets below the $0.56 support. That will clear the path for a drop to $0.50 and then to $0.46.
If buyers want to prevent the decline, they will have to shove the XRP/USDT pair above the downtrend line. That will invalidate the bearish pattern and start a relief rally to $0.67 and eventually to $0.74.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) returned from the downtrend line on Jan. 14, indicating that the bears are vigorously protecting the level.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($96) has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If the price skids below the uptrend line, the SOL/USDT pair may tumble to $67.
Alternatively, if the price rises above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then travel to $117 and later to $126. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal the resumption of the uptrend.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been falling inside a descending channel pattern for several days, but a minor positive is that the bulls have maintained the price above the breakout level of $0.46.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.55), the ADA/USDT pair could climb to the downtrend line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will indicate that the downtrend could be over. The pair may then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.68.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That will increase the likelihood of the pair dropping to the support line of the channel, where the buyers are likely to step in.
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) has been trading below the breakdown level of $38 since Jan. 12, but the bears have failed to sink the price to the strong support at $31.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($37.32) is gradually sloping down, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a slight advantage to the sellers. If the 50-day SMA ($35.68) support gives way, the AVAX/USDT pair may retest the $31 support. A strong bounce off this level may keep the pair rangebound between $31 and $43.50 for some time.
The next trending move is likely to begin after buyers drive the price above $43.50 or bears pull the pair below the crucial support at $31.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been sustaining below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) for the past few days, but the bears have failed to sink the price to $0.07.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.07.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. Buyers will then try to propel the pair to the stiff overhead resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
