The Federal Reserve continues in a wait-and-see attitude. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting monetary policy, insist on the idea that interest rates are in the right place to wait for greater clarity on the economic policy measures of the Trump Administration and their effects on the economy. With this attitude, it is most likely that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting, scheduled for June, and perhaps beyond, despite Trump himself insisting on lowering the cost of money. Furthermore, Fed technicians indicate that economic prospects have deteriorated and that a recession is as likely as their baseline scenario.

At that meeting, the central bank decided to keep the reference rate unchanged for the third consecutive time, in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Although this cut was widely expected at the time by the markets, the central bank president, Jerome Powell, warned that Donald Trump's tariff policies "are still evolving and their effects on the economy remain very uncertain,” which has led monetary authorities to conduct themselves with greater caution than the markets expected.

At that time, Powell said that if the large announced tariff increases remain, “it is likely that an increase in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment will occur.”

Even so, he noted: the “shock” of the tariffs is a concern that has affected the confidence of consumers and businesses, but has not yet materialized in the economic data. And while he said that uncertainty is “extremely high,” he insisted that “there is no rush” to make adjustments to the monetary policy rate.

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