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Steven Walgenbach

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Bitcoin Isn’t Broken — VanEck Says It’s Resetting VanEck’s latest outlook argues that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to equities reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures rather than structural weakness. With the asset lagging stocks in 2025, the firm believes the dislocation could set Bitcoin up for stronger relative performance once liquidity conditions improve. VanEck also notes that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact following the latest cycle high, pointing to 2026 as a likely consolidation year rather than a dramatic melt-up or collapse. As gold captures headlines with record highs, the firm says Bitcoin’s quieter phase may ultimately prove more constructive for long-term investors. #Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #CryptoMarkets $BTC

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America Enters the Debt Service Era US interest payments on national debt have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, overtaking both defense spending and Medicare and marking a historic shift in federal finances. What was once a background line item has become the single largest expense in the US budget, raising concerns across markets about sustainability and long-term fiscal risk. As debt servicing costs accelerate, Washington is turning to an unlikely tool for support: stablecoins. New regulations now require stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in short-term US Treasuries, effectively transforming crypto infrastructure into a structural buyer of government debt. Analysts estimate this demand could absorb a significant share of future Treasury issuance as foreign buyers step back. The moment signals a deeper change in the relationship between government finance and digital assets. While many investors continue to default to gold in times of stress, stablecoins are quietly becoming part of the plumbing of US debt markets—suggesting crypto’s role in the global financial system is moving from the fringe to the core. #USDebt #Stablecoins #DigitalFinance

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Arthur Hayes’ Wallet Signals a Strategic Shift Arthur Hayes appears to be reshaping his crypto exposure after moving millions of dollars out of Ethereum and sharply increasing his stablecoin holdings. On-chain data shows Hayes has steadily transferred ETH to exchanges in recent weeks, fueling speculation that he is selling as part of a broader portfolio rebalancing strategy. At the same time, Hayes has been rotating capital into select DeFi tokens that have suffered steep drawdowns this year, suggesting a contrarian bet on a liquidity-driven recovery rather than a full retreat from risk. His portfolio now holds a dominant share in USDC, giving him flexibility as market sentiment remains subdued. #CryptoMarkets #Ethereum #DeFi $ETH

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Bitcoin’s $100K Milestone Looks Different After Inflation Adjustment Bitcoin reached a nominal all-time high above $126,000 in October, but new analysis shows the cryptocurrency never actually crossed $100,000 when inflation is taken into account. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said that when Bitcoin’s price is adjusted using 2020 dollars, the asset peaked at $99,848, falling just short of the six-figure mark in real terms. Thorn explained that the calculation accounts for the cumulative decline in U.S. dollar purchasing power across every Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print since 2020. According to CPI data, prices today are roughly 25% higher than they were five years ago, meaning a dollar now buys about 80% of what it did at the start of the decade. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 2.7% year over year in November, highlighting that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. The inflation-adjusted perspective comes as Bitcoin trades near the $87,000 level following recent market weakness. The asset is on track to post its first negative fourth-quarter performance since 2022 and would need a sharp rally before year-end to close the quarter in positive territory. Broader crypto markets have also declined, with the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin falling significantly over the past three months. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has continued to weaken, with the Dollar Currency Index down more than 10% this year. In contrast, precious metals have surged, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all posting strong gains and several reaching new record or multi-year highs. The divergence has intensified comparisons between Bitcoin’s recent performance and traditional stores of value. #Bitcoin #Inflation #DigitalAssets $BTC

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Strategy Builds Cash, Hits Pause on Bitcoin Buying Strategy has strengthened its balance sheet after raising $747.8 million through a common stock sale, lifting its cash reserves to $2.19 billion and temporarily pausing Bitcoin purchases as crypto markets remain under pressure. The move signals a more defensive posture from the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, which is prioritizing liquidity to support dividends and debt obligations while navigating a prolonged market downturn. With Bitcoin accumulation on hold for now, Strategy appears focused on resilience rather than expansion as volatility continues to weigh on both digital assets and treasury-focused stocks. #Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #DigitalAssets #strategy

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