Crypto十三东生
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Crypto十三东生
对我而言，Web3不仅是技术演进，更是生产关系的变革。
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Market Updates - Fast News of the Day
Tonight’s non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable this week (expected 80K / unemployment rate 4.2%), but what’s even more noteworthy is that Trump suddenly softened—going from “don’t blame the White House” to “it’s not your fault, it’s the politicized council.” Pressure from hawks has also been split. Meanwhile, Chengchen’s VPD chips have passed Samsung’s validation; clients of Winstar have already seen demand for 2027–2028. Yesterday, South Korea’s memory market plunged; today, domestic components have made a breakthrough, further widening the divergence. The central bank is still stockpiling gold (China has bought for 21 straight months). Oil prices are down 2%, but winter energy risks haven’t disappeared.
The First Photo of Autumn
Market Morning News
Binance Vision Evening News
So high?
Many people in the crypto world fantasize about going the “C-route,” getting rich with high compounding returns using a very small amount of capital. In reality, you have to endure a long period of time without making money; most people can’t last, and it’s easy to get liquidated and lose everything.
槐序十七
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You definitely know the answer—those who have come out of the crypto world are not ordinary people.
After you make money and then lose money, what kind of mental state are you in? Anyway, after losing money, I actually fell asleep, and I felt at ease. Am I sick or something?😦
大吉大利！
From Crypto十三东生
ChangXin refuses to cut Apple’s price demands Asking price not lower than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
China News Network & Weibo, Aug 5—On the 5th, according to a report by South Korean media outlet “Digital Daily,” Apple attempted to negotiate a lower procurement price for DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) with ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), but was refused. CXMT insisted that its quoted price must be no lower than that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—even higher.
The reason is straightforward: domestic Chinese companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi have locked in CXMT’s production capacity through long-term contracts, so CXMT does not need to accommodate Apple’s harsh terms.
The report notes that in the past, large tech companies often used the threat of “switching to procure China-made products if their demands were not met” as a bargaining chip. However, this route is now effectively blocked. With capacity being redirected heavily toward high-value AI server memory (HBM) rather than low-end general-purpose DRAM, and with China no longer offering low-cost replacement options, the market landscape is supporting memory prices of various types—including general-purpose DRAM.
China News Network & Weibo, Aug 5—On the 5th, according to a report by South Korean media outlet “Digital Daily,” Apple attempted to negotiate a lower procurement price for DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) with ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), but was refused. CXMT insisted that its quoted price must be no lower than that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—even higher.
The reason is straightforward: domestic Chinese companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi have locked in CXMT’s production capacity through long-term contracts, so CXMT does not need to accommodate Apple’s harsh terms.
The report notes that in the past, large tech companies often used the threat of “switching to procure China-made products if their demands were not met” as a bargaining chip. However, this route is now effectively blocked. With capacity being redirected heavily toward high-value AI server memory (HBM) rather than low-end general-purpose DRAM, and with China no longer offering low-cost replacement options, the market landscape is supporting memory prices of various types—including general-purpose DRAM.
Today’s Morning News
API price comparison among domestic and international large model vendors: what are the gaps?
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
Middle East: Fighting while talking—the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
AI sector: three brokerages use the same playbook—pullbacks are normal multiple tops
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
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