Crypto十三东生
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Crypto十三东生
对我而言，Web3不仅是技术演进，更是生产关系的变革。
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Middle East: Fighting while talking—the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
AI sector: three brokerages use the same playbook—pullbacks are normal multiple tops
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Three top-tier brokers all spoke today: the AI pullback isn’t the finish line—it’s just the bumps along the way. Guangfa said, "Worst case is still a multi-top." CICC compared it to the dot-com bubble in 2000 (before the major top, there were at least four big pullbacks). CITIC said, "The AI narrative over the long term is expected to continue." People climbing the mountain shout "We’ve reached the top" from halfway up, but anyone who has seen the map knows there’s still road ahead. Taco
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It’s that time again—weekend time. Next week, the main focus will be on Friday’s non-farm payroll data (most likely negative). Last time it was positive because oil prices had fallen sharply and the data looked a bit better; this time oil prices have risen again, and with the July stock market turmoil, the data likely won’t look good.
Now, about the rate-hike situation: this week’s policy meeting did not raise rates and kept the interest rates unchanged. If that’s the case, the probability of a hike later on will only keep increasing. You can understand this round of no hike as: if not now, then next time—so it may be pushed back, but not removed.
Let’s talk about the storage sector’s market move. After a big drop, there’s been an oversold rebound of over 40%—the first time in history. I’ve never seen such a huge single-day rally. The Korean market is even more extreme: the day before, the KOSPI index plunged 15%, and the next day it closed up 17%—something you rarely see. So is this rebound the bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now.
As you know, I’m a technical-analysis person. From a technical standpoint, after the rebound, prices may give back about half of the gains again. If it is truly a bottoming scenario, price could rise from this level. If not, it may continue to break down to test the prior (next) lower low. I favor the second scenario—meaning it’s very possible there will be another probe down.
Also, the Nasdaq’s overall trend is in a correction cycle. I expect the Nasdaq 100 to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward, it will be hard to resist against the trend. My suggestion is to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback offers an opportunity—if it doesn’t offer one, then you should still look for short-term trading opportunities.
Bitcoin’s technical picture over the past couple of days has become increasingly clear: as long as it doesn’t break above 67,500 here, there’s a very high chance the market is topping and entering a bearish sell-off wave. Based on the time/space measure, the decline is expected to happen around 8.10 to 8.15, falling to roughly the 49,000–53,000 area. Ethereum’s descending triangle converging support has already dropped to around 1,380; that’s the level Ethereum is likely to reach in the short- to medium-term…
Just waiting for this long-awaited half-year bull liquidation…$BTC
Now, about the rate-hike situation: this week’s policy meeting did not raise rates and kept the interest rates unchanged. If that’s the case, the probability of a hike later on will only keep increasing. You can understand this round of no hike as: if not now, then next time—so it may be pushed back, but not removed.
Let’s talk about the storage sector’s market move. After a big drop, there’s been an oversold rebound of over 40%—the first time in history. I’ve never seen such a huge single-day rally. The Korean market is even more extreme: the day before, the KOSPI index plunged 15%, and the next day it closed up 17%—something you rarely see. So is this rebound the bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now.
As you know, I’m a technical-analysis person. From a technical standpoint, after the rebound, prices may give back about half of the gains again. If it is truly a bottoming scenario, price could rise from this level. If not, it may continue to break down to test the prior (next) lower low. I favor the second scenario—meaning it’s very possible there will be another probe down.
Also, the Nasdaq’s overall trend is in a correction cycle. I expect the Nasdaq 100 to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward, it will be hard to resist against the trend. My suggestion is to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback offers an opportunity—if it doesn’t offer one, then you should still look for short-term trading opportunities.
Bitcoin’s technical picture over the past couple of days has become increasingly clear: as long as it doesn’t break above 67,500 here, there’s a very high chance the market is topping and entering a bearish sell-off wave. Based on the time/space measure, the decline is expected to happen around 8.10 to 8.15, falling to roughly the 49,000–53,000 area. Ethereum’s descending triangle converging support has already dropped to around 1,380; that’s the level Ethereum is likely to reach in the short- to medium-term…
Just waiting for this long-awaited half-year bull liquidation…$BTC
$GIGGLE Zhuang, protecting the board... 😦. Are you planning to use my money to do charity?
On July 30, #bStocks流动性 7 news, Dune data showed that Binance stock tokens bStocks recorded a trading volume of $6.123 billion over the past week, hitting an all-time high, with an average of 99% of the trading volume concentrated in the Nasdaq 100 ETF stock token QQQ. Notably, since mid-July, bStocks' daily trading volume has grown from over $100 million to the billion-dollar level, mainly driven by QQQ.
In addition, bStocks' total assets under management (AUM) have reached about $680 million, surpassing xStocks' AUM of about $597 million.
In addition, bStocks' total assets under management (AUM) have reached about $680 million, surpassing xStocks' AUM of about $597 million.
Two big juicy stories over at AI
OpenAI reveals secret techniques: GPT-5.6 Sol surges 3x on the ARC-AGI-3 test (just with two settings)
IBM announces it has entered the “quantum advantage” era—quantum computing begins to do “go beyond traditional computers, and be verifiable”
OpenAI reveals secret techniques: GPT-5.6 Sol surges 3x on the ARC-AGI-3 test (just with two settings)
IBM announces it has entered the “quantum advantage” era—quantum computing begins to do “go beyond traditional computers, and be verifiable”
Storage Chips — Management Begins to Self-Rescue
SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won personally purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix (KRW 4.8 billion, first personal increase)
Yesterday, SK Hynix saw a two-day loss of 25%; today, management stepped in personally → a strong signal
Landi Technology (A-share storage leader) spent KRW 40.86 million to repurchase its own shares in the 194–209 yuan range
Industry bottoming signals are emerging in a concentrated way
SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won personally purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix (KRW 4.8 billion, first personal increase)
Yesterday, SK Hynix saw a two-day loss of 25%; today, management stepped in personally → a strong signal
Landi Technology (A-share storage leader) spent KRW 40.86 million to repurchase its own shares in the 194–209 yuan range
Industry bottoming signals are emerging in a concentrated way
#美国再度空袭伊朗革命卫队 Middle East further escalates—Iran says it will strike U.S. troops F-35
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they shot down/destroyed three U.S. F-35 fighter jets (unverified)
A massive explosion in southern Lebanon, and Iran attacks a U.S. military base in Jordan
But at the same time: Pakistan helped Iran work out the deal for Qatar LNG ships’ safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—talking while fighting
Energy prices swing wildly; crude oil has become a “political baton”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they shot down/destroyed three U.S. F-35 fighter jets (unverified)
A massive explosion in southern Lebanon, and Iran attacks a U.S. military base in Jordan
But at the same time: Pakistan helped Iran work out the deal for Qatar LNG ships’ safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—talking while fighting
Energy prices swing wildly; crude oil has become a “political baton”
The Fed blew up—“Volcker era”’s first split. Early-morning decision: keep interest rates unchanged, but three committee members voted for a rate hike. This is the first time there’s been a public internal split after “Vosh” took power (seen by the market as hawkish). In other words: inflation can’t be tamed—some within the central bank are already getting anxious. Gold today surged to the 4100 level, only to be knocked back again (funds are waiting for direction).
The most explosive macro news today isn’t rate hikes or rate cuts—it's three people within the Federal Reserve openly “pressuring” for a rate hike, marking the first split of the Wozh era.
On the Middle East front, Iran calls for shooting down F-35s, while Pakistan turns around and helps negotiate to allow LNG ships to pass.
The storage big shots can’t sit still: SK hynix’s chairman personally scoops up shares for 4.8 billion KRW, while Montage Technology pours 40 million USD into a share buyback.
In times like this, you need to focus on the people who are actually putting real money on the line.
On the Middle East front, Iran calls for shooting down F-35s, while Pakistan turns around and helps negotiate to allow LNG ships to pass.
The storage big shots can’t sit still: SK hynix’s chairman personally scoops up shares for 4.8 billion KRW, while Montage Technology pours 40 million USD into a share buyback.
In times like this, you need to focus on the people who are actually putting real money on the line.
Have you arrived at the target level?
These damn things in the US and Korean stocks—up and down everywhere.
#韩国限制杠杆etf交易 868 US dollars in per-share trading directly triggered the liquidation of Hyperliquid’s SK Hynix perpetual futures, totaling nearly 80 million US dollars.
Event origin: In the pre-market session on South Korea’s alternative trading system NXT, a single trade of just 1 share of SK Hynix stock occurred; the price hit the lower limit of the price drop (about 868 US dollars). This real trade was adopted by the data provider.
On-chain transmission: During the pre-market period (7:00 Beijing time), TradeXYZ switched to external quotes and directly used this abnormal price as the SKHX oracle input, causing the mark price to crash.
Liquidation cascade: Within a single minute, SKHX plunged to a low of 927 US dollars. Hundreds of long accounts were forcibly liquidated; open interest dropped by 150 million US dollars, and liquidation volume was nearly 80 million US dollars. Of this, about 26.26 million US dollars was passively absorbed by the system’s reserve addresses and liquidated again.
Comparison with Binance: Binance’s similar contracts abandoned pre-market external quotes, stuck to internal pricing, and the index only dipped slightly, avoiding large-scale liquidations.
Core issue: The external quote mechanism failed to recognize isolated trades caused by insufficient liquidity in the market. Although the mark price design includes multiple layers of smoothing, it still couldn’t prevent continuous liquidations driven by the abnormal price.
Lesson learned: Price discovery must be integrated with market depth; a single trade should not directly dominate risk controls for high-leverage contracts.
Event origin: In the pre-market session on South Korea’s alternative trading system NXT, a single trade of just 1 share of SK Hynix stock occurred; the price hit the lower limit of the price drop (about 868 US dollars). This real trade was adopted by the data provider.
On-chain transmission: During the pre-market period (7:00 Beijing time), TradeXYZ switched to external quotes and directly used this abnormal price as the SKHX oracle input, causing the mark price to crash.
Liquidation cascade: Within a single minute, SKHX plunged to a low of 927 US dollars. Hundreds of long accounts were forcibly liquidated; open interest dropped by 150 million US dollars, and liquidation volume was nearly 80 million US dollars. Of this, about 26.26 million US dollars was passively absorbed by the system’s reserve addresses and liquidated again.
Comparison with Binance: Binance’s similar contracts abandoned pre-market external quotes, stuck to internal pricing, and the index only dipped slightly, avoiding large-scale liquidations.
Core issue: The external quote mechanism failed to recognize isolated trades caused by insufficient liquidity in the market. Although the mark price design includes multiple layers of smoothing, it still couldn’t prevent continuous liquidations driven by the abnormal price.
Lesson learned: Price discovery must be integrated with market depth; a single trade should not directly dominate risk controls for high-leverage contracts.
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