Kralice 1

Why Is Bitcoin Falling Again Today? ⤵️ I’m not only linking this move to tomorrow’s CPI data release. The selling streak that started yesterday is continuing today: - Strategy 1.690 $BTC sold. This sale sparked concerns: “Will more follow?” - Bitcoin was rejected again around $65,150. Buyers failed to break through resistance. Stop orders and leveraged long liquidations kicked in, accelerating the drop. But the RSI on the chart is nearing the oversold zone; a short-term bounce could happen. - On Monday, $163.1 million flowed out of spot crypto ETFs. As the price fell, institutional demand wasn’t able to absorb the selling pressure. - It appears that companies’ interest is shifting from Bitcoin to AI investment. BTC’s marginal institutional buyer is weakening for now. - Tomorrow, U.S. CPI data will be released. Ahead of the report, we’re seeing position reduction and risk trimming. - There’s also a longer-term risk on the geopolitical side that we shouldn’t overlook: it’s being assessed that Tehran believes time is working in its favor and is trying to increase pressure on Washington ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November by keeping energy prices high via the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of effects here is quite clear: - If Hormuz is closed or restricted, oil stays high. - If oil rises, U.S. inflation re-accelerates. - If inflation rises, the Fed keeps rates higher for longer and may even consider a new hike. - In that case, the dollar and bond yields strengthen while Bitcoin and other risk assets come under pressure. If tensions between Iran and the U.S. drag on, the risk to crypto shouldn’t be underestimated. On the other hand, reaching an agreement and fully reopening Hormuz could quickly reverse the entire scenario. My short-term bias is DOWN. I’m waiting for confirmation from the price action after tomorrow’s CPI at 15:30.

Bitcoin neden hızlı düştü? (Grafiği ekledim) • Strategy 1.690 $BTC daha sattı. Piyasa, şirketin satışlara devam edebileceği endişesini fiyatladı. • Bitcoin yaklaşık 65.150 dolardan bir kez daha reddedildi. Alıcılar direnci aşamadı. • 64.700 ve 64.400 dolar destekleri kaybedildi. Stop emirleri ve kaldıraçlı long pozisyonların kapanması düşüşü hızlandırdı. • Grayscale, Cardano, Polkadot ve Hedera ETF başvurularını SEC incelemesinden çekti. Bu gelişme genel kripto risk iştahını zayıflattı. • ABD stratejik petrol rezervi 1983’ten beri en düşük seviyeye indi. Bu durum petrol ve enflasyon riskini, dolayısıyla Fed’in sıkı kalma ihtimalini artırıyor. • Peter Schiff’in “Bitcoin satın” açıklaması korkuyu büyüttü.

Yeni bir haftaya başladık, iyi haftalar! Bakalım bu hafta kripto paralar için nasıl geçecek... CLARITY Act sonbahara ertelendi. Normalde kısa vadede moral bozabilecek bir haberdi fakat piyasa şu anda düzenleme takviminden çok ETF talebini ve çarşamba günkü enflasyon verisini fiyatlıyor. Bitcoin madencisi Marathon Digital'ın - $MARA - 1,6 milyar doların üzerinde değere sahip 23.093 $BTC sattığı iddiası gündemde! Bitcoin için asıl test çarşamba günü olacak: • CPI düşük gelirse faiz artışı korkusu hafifleyebilir ve yükseliş devam edebilir. • CPI yüksek gelirse dolar ve tahvil faizleri güçlenebilir; 65K üzerindeki hareket hızla geri verilebilir. • Veri öncesinde piyasanın iki yöne de sert fitiller atması şaşırtmaz, fiyat oynaklığı yüksek olabilir dikkat! Bugünkü yönüm net: YATAY.

Bitcoin için haftanın özeti ⤵️ Bu hafta Bitcoin tarafında benim için en önemli gelişme fiyat değil, ETF talebiydi. $BTC yeniden 65 bin doların üzerine çıktı ama asıl dikkat çekici olan, spot ETF’lerin haftanın beş işlem gününü de pozitif tamamlamasıydı. Haftalık yaklaşık 853 milyon dolarlık girişin büyük bölümünü BlackRock’ın IBIT fonu aldı. En son beş günlük kesintisiz pozitif ETF serisinde Bitcoin önce hızlanmış, takip eden haftalarda yükselişini sürdürmüştü. Fakat o hareket de düz bir çizgi halinde gelmemişti; güçlü girişlerin ardından kâr satışları ve sert geri çekilmeler yaşanmıştı. Bu nedenle “ETF’ler pozitif, artık sadece yükseliriz” demiyorum. Ama kurumsal talebin geri dönmesi, son yükselişin yalnızca short squeeze olmadığını gösteriyor. Beni düşündüren taraf şu: Bu kadar güçlü girişe rağmen fiyat hâlâ kontrollü ilerliyor. Demek ki karşı tarafta ETF talebini karşılayan ciddi bir satış var. Alıcılar güçlendi ama satıcılar henüz masadan kalkmadı. 📅 Yeni haftada gözüm çarşamba açıklanacak ABD CPI’da olacak. Geçen hafta zayıf istihdam verisi piyasayı destekledi. Bu hafta enflasyon da düşük gelirse ETF talebiyle makro rahatlama aynı yönde çalışabilir. Ama CPI yüksek gelirse faiz artışı beklentisi yeniden güçlenir ve 65 bin üzerindeki FOMO hızla geri verilebilir. Benim yönüm hala YUKARI. 50 EMA korundukça yükseliş ihtimalini önde tutarım; kaybedilirse bunun yeni trend değil, bir tepki rallisi olduğunu düşünebiliriz.

🟢 Yaklaşık 20.000 BTC’lik balina birikiminden söz ediliyor. Olumlu, fakat bunu tek başına yükseliş garantisi saymam. Büyük adreslerin bir kısmı borsalara veya saklama şirketlerine ait olabilir. Grafikte benim için kilit nokta günlük 50 EMA. Bu bölge korunduğu sürece hafta sonu yön beklentim kontrollü biçimde yukarı. Önce yakın dirençlerin geçildiğini, ardından hacmin bunu doğruladığını görmek istiyorum. $BTC $ETH

ETF’ler TÜM HAFTA Pozitifti! 😍 Bitcoin ETF’lerine beş günde yaklaşık 865 milyon dolar girdi. Bu, uzun süredir görmek istediğimiz kurumsal talep sürekliliği. Üstelik $BTC günlük 50 EMA’nın üzerine çıktı ve şimdilik bu ortalamayı destek olarak kullanıyor. 📅 Peki ETF’ler en son beş gün üst üste pozitif olduğunda ne olmuştu? 20-24 Nisan haftasında yaklaşık 824 milyon dolarlık giriş görülmüş, Bitcoin aynı dönemde kabaca 71.000 dolardan 78.000 dolara yükselmişti. Hareket sonraki haftalarda 82.000 dolara kadar devam etti ancak makro baskı ve satışlar nedeniyle kalıcı olamadı. Yani geçmiş örnek bize şunu söylüyor: Kesintisiz ETF talebi yükselişi besleyebilir fakat tek başına trend dönüşünü garanti etmez. 🟢 Yaklaşık 20.000 BTC’lik balina birikiminden söz ediliyor. Olumlu, fakat bunu tek başına yükseliş garantisi saymam. Büyük adreslerin bir kısmı borsalara veya saklama şirketlerine ait olabilir. Grafikte benim için kilit nokta günlük 50 EMA. Bu bölge korunduğu sürece hafta sonu yön beklentim kontrollü biçimde yukarı. Önce yakın dirençlerin geçildiğini, ardından hacmin bunu doğruladığını görmek istiyorum. Hafta sonu ETF alımları olmayacak ve likidite düşecek. Bu nedenle ani yükselişleri kovalamak yerine geri çekilmelerde desteğin korunup korunmadığına bakacağım. Yön hala YUKARI!

Bitcoin today rose above $65k, but you need to read the reason for the move correctly. In the US, while more than 80k jobs are expected to be added, the economy lost 23k jobs. The market priced this as “the Fed’s rate hikes are getting harder,” and BTC quickly surged. The fact that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% shows the report wasn’t a complete disaster. In other words, we have more of a controlled cooling story that could reduce Fed pressure than a recession panic. The most important change on the chart is that the daily 50 EMA is being attempted to be reclaimed. The hourly rising channel is still preserved, volume increased, and MACD momentum supports it. However, the hourly RSI is above 70. So I won’t do FOMO here and chase the move. The scenario I’m watching: if the 64,700–64,800 area holds as support, I’ll expect the upside to continue. If the 65,300–65,600 zone is broken, 66k could come into play. If price falls back below 64,300, the probability of the post-data breakout turning into a trap increases. I think it’s also important that the ETFs are positive again on Thursday. Because that suggests the move isn’t just about short positions closing, and that there is also spot demand. The CLARITY Act being postponed to September is negative, but today’s macro data overshadowed that news. The transfer of 210k BTC after Coldcard is not a sell-off by itself; the key is to look at how much of it actually ends up in exchanges. My bias today is upward. Still, after the data, I’ll trust the daily close above the 50 EMA rather than getting carried away by excitement.

Bitcoin is testing the $65,000 level again today, and this time the rise is backed by ETF demand as well. On Wednesday, $296.2 million flowed into crypto ETFs. It matters to me that the first three trading days of the week have been positive; it shows this move is supported not only by leveraged trades, but also by real spot demand. The macro picture, however, is not entirely comfortable. ADP employment came in at just 44K. This suggests the labor market is cooling and the Fed may have less room to raise rates. But the ISM Services Prices Index rose to 70.3. So while employment is cooling, service inflation is still hot. Therefore, we shouldn’t downplay Warsh and Cook’s message: “If inflation stays high, we can raise rates.” In the $BTC chart, higher lows are holding. The channel support around 64,400, and the 65,200–65,300 area is the test for the next short-term stretch. My bias today is UP.

Bitcoin’s price action changed during the day. In the morning there was indecision around 64K. Now $BTC defended the 63.9K area several times, broke above 64.2K, and has started forming higher lows on the hourly chart. My roadmap: • Positive if it stays above 64.2K • First significant hurdle at 64.5K • Main resistance zone at 64.8K–65K. RSI is around 60 and not in overbought territory. On the MACD side, momentum has not yet turned explosive. So I view the rise positively, but let’s not get caught up in FOMO.

Behind the decline in SpaceX shares is the fact that 911.5 million shares will be made available for sale. This could significantly increase the float and create selling pressure on SpaceX. However, there’s no verified data showing that the money coming out is directly rotating into crypto. Investors selling shares could move into cash, bonds, or other stocks. So it’s too early to say, “SpaceX is falling, and the money is coming to BTC.”

ETF inflows continue, and if 63.9K holds, my short-term direction is UP. However, until 65K breaks, I see this not as a major trend reversal, but as a strengthening reaction move.

Monday ETFs came in positive, US stocks were strong, and oil eased on expectations of a Hormuz deal. 🟢 Normally, these are headlines that support risk appetite. On the Bitcoin chart, we got a good reaction from the 62K area. A turnaround above 63.3K is a good sign. Now the real issue is the 64.2K region. If we see it hold above 64.2K, we can assume the market is breathing a sigh of relief. After that, the daily 50 EMA comes back onto the table. (It has currently slipped to around the 64.5k level.) However, if $BTC again rejects from the 64.2K area, then any rise will remain just a reaction. Today, we also have the JOLTS data. If employment comes in strong, Fed pressure could increase again. If the data comes in weak but controlled, it may give BTC short-term relief. (To be released at 17:00 Turkish time.) My direction: for now, flat to mildly up. We should monitor the data and the reaction that will be given at resistance.

In my opinion, today’s most important news is Strategy’s sales. Saylor’s company sold 1,638 $BTC last week. About 104.7 million dollars. Normally, when we hear “Strategy,” we always think of a “BTC buyer.” But the picture may be changing now. Because the company didn’t just sell BTC. It also increased cash by selling shares, carried out a STRC buyback, and raised its USD reserves to $4 billion. This tells us the following: - We can’t say Strategy is leaving Bitcoin. - But for them, BTC is no longer just a “accumulated asset.” - It’s an asset that can be sold if needed to preserve the capital structure. Saylor has long been seen in the market as an “infinite buyer.” If investors start pricing him as a “seller when necessary,” that would put pressure on BTC. The macro side isn’t very comfortable either. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected. So the economy is still resilient. 🟢 What’s the good side then? Oil dropped sharply. A pause in attacks on the US-Iran front eased inflation fears somewhat. That could be supportive for BTC. My BTC bias today: DOWNWARD-FIXED.

Bitcoin reacted from the 62K level. This looks like “short-term relief.” Because 64.2K was lost. Once support is lost, it starts to act as resistance at the same level. So we need to remove our bullish expectations unless $BTC returns above 64,200$ . There are a few reasons for today’s pressure: - The Coldcard security incident is growing. The loss has reached the 70–90 million dollar range. People are moving their BTC to exchanges. - Friday’s ETFs closed negative. This makes it harder on the institutional side to say “immediate aggressive buying is coming.” - The Hormuz issue is still not clear. Trump says it’s “open,” while the Iranian side continues to send messages of control and closure. The oil risk hasn’t been taken off the table. - On the Fed side, discussions are about expectations for rate hikes. That is the combination we like the least for BTC: a strong dollar, high interest rates, and low risk appetite. What am I looking at on the chart? In addition to what we discussed, below, 62K is very important. If that breaks, panic could increase. My bias: FIXED-DOWNWARD. Sometimes the best trade is to wait for the market to prove itself.

July has ended, and even though Bitcoin recovered during the month, it did not give a clear bullish signal. But early in the month there was a high level of panic. The 58K-60K range was being discussed. Then $BTC responded nicely, tried to break above 65K, but selling came in around the daily 50 EMA. In the past few days, meanwhile: - The 64.2K support was lost. - The ETFs closed negative on Friday. - On top of that, news of a Coldcard security vulnerability came out. - After the Fed meeting, the macro pressure has not fully disappeared yet. What are we seeing on the Bitcoin chart? - A reaction came from the 62.5K area, but for now it looks to me like only a temporary response. - To restore balance, the price should be seen again above 64.2K. My direction: FIXED—DOWNWARD.

Bitcoin fell sharply today—let’s look at the reasons together: 1- Yes, the big topic everyone is talking about is the Coldcard news. About 594 BTC—around $38 million worth of Bitcoin—was drained in a very short time due to a vulnerability in older Coldcard wallets. The picture that emerges points more to an exploitation of a weakness related to seed generation in older firmware versions. In other words, the issue isn’t with Bitcoin itself, but with certain wallet setups and the security layer. But markets don’t price these headlines based on technical details—they price them based on psychology at first glance. When confidence in self-custody is shaken, crypto’s short-term risk appetite deteriorates. 2- $BTC had already been struggling around the daily 50 EMA for a few days. The area around 65K acted like a resistance. It couldn’t get clear acceptance from there. Then the 64.2K support was lost. This is a level we’ve been tracking for days. As long as it held above it, I was thinking, “Okay, the market is looking for balance.” But once it slipped below it, sellers gained the upper hand. 3- On top of that, the macro picture came into play. Core PCE is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to reassure the Fed. That keeps bond yields higher. So what happens when bond yields stay high? Money flowing into risk assets becomes more selective. Crypto is directly affected by this as well. What do we see on the Bitcoin chart? - After BTC lost 64.2K, the interim support at 63.5K also weakened and it dropped as low as the 62.5K area. - The hourly RSI is in an extremely weak zone. - MACD is negative. - Volume increased on the drop candles. The 62K–61.6K zone is still an important support area. If buyers show up there, this decline could remain just a liquidity sweep. My direction: DOWN—STEADY.

We’ve left the Fed meeting behind, but the crypto market still hasn’t fully calmed down. Because the issue isn’t just “will the interest rate stay put?” Yes, the Fed held rates steady. But Warsh’s tone wasn’t soft. “There will be no compromise on the %2 inflation target,” he said. 3 members wanted rate hikes. No clear forward guidance was given that would signal relief. So why didn’t $BTC fall sharply? Because Microsoft’s strong results on the AI front lifted technology stocks. Risk appetite wasn’t completely broken. That helped BTC hold around 64K. But on the chart, there’s still no clear victory. Keeping BTC above 64.2K is good news. The daily 50 EMA is around 64.9K, and BTC still hasn’t cleanly broken above that zone. The ETF side is also undecided: there are small inflows into BTC ETFs. Outflows from ETH ETFs. Total flows are only +$2 million. On the ETH side, there’s risk reduction. My BTC bias today: IF it slips below 64.2K, the post-Fed sell-off scenario returns.

Today is Fed day! In the charts, Bitcoin is above 64K, but still below the daily 50 EMA level. What the market is expecting today is this: Will the Fed keep interest rates unchanged? Or will a surprise rate hike come? How harsh will Warsh’s tone be when he speaks? My expectation is that rates will stay the same. But Warsh’s tone could be tough. So he might deliver a message like: “For now, we didn’t raise rates, but the door is open due to the oil/inflation risk.” That’s why after the speech the first move could be a sudden wick. The oil side has also deteriorated. After news of an Iranian strike, oil rose. If oil rises, worries about inflation return. If inflation worries return, the Fed won’t be more comfortable—it will be tougher. The negative results from yesterday’s ETFs also told us this: risk is being reduced in the market ahead of the Fed decision. My Bitcoin direction ahead of the decision: STAY ABOVE 64.2K—this is good!

The move we saw today in BTC is very clear—de-risking ahead of the Fed. There’s a rate decision tomorrow. And normally the market says “rates will stay the same,” but this time things are a bit more complicated. Because Warsh doesn’t guide the Fed as much as during the Powell era. That’s why the possibility of a surprise rate hike is on the table. My view: the Fed will keep rates unchanged but keep the tone hawkish. However, if a surprise rate hike does come, BTC’s first reaction will be negative—because such a decision pulls money out of risk assets. Looking at oil: today is somewhat reassuring. The Houthi attacks pose a risk to energy supply, but Brent is currently falling on hopes for a U.S.-Iran meeting. If oil falls, Fed pressure eases. That would be good for $BTC. My direction: HOLD-DOWN

Will the Fed allow the market to relax? Tensions eased a bit on the US-Iran side. It looks like Trump has paused the attacks. Oil fell sharply because of that. - This is good for BTC. - Because if oil drops, fears of inflation decrease. But this week is Fed week. The decision will come on Wednesday evening, July 29. The market normally expects rates to stay unchanged, but the possibility of a surprise rate hike is being seriously discussed. For me, that’s why the picture for $BTC is mixed. - The daily 50 EMA around 65K has not been broken yet. - The oil drop is positive. But Fed fears are still on the table. - There’s also an important change on the Saylor side. Strategy hasn’t been buying BTC for 5 weeks. This doesn’t mean “Saylor became a seller,” but it shows he’s no longer acting like an automatic dip buyer. - Meanwhile, he continues to buy $ETH on Bitmine.

Yesterday, “we expected a decline,” and the market worked exactly in that direction. But the issue wasn’t just the chart. Again, what I’m saying is this: If oil rises, the fear of inflation comes back. If the fear of inflation comes back, the Fed could tighten further. If the Fed tightens further, risky assets like $BTC get pressured. Today, on top of that, technology stocks and reducing positions ahead of Fed Week were added. ETH and DOGE falling more sharply tells me this: The market is pulling money from the riskiest side. This isn’t yet major panic, but de-risking is clear. Also, US data didn’t come in very reassuring. Services PMI was strong. Manufacturing is still growing. New home sales are recovering. 🚨 And on top of that, there’s oil and war risk. The Fed meeting is on July 28–29. The decision will come on the evening of July 29—Wednesday. The real move on that day will be determined by Warsh’s tone! My bias today: STEADY-LOWER. For Bitcoin to strengthen again, it needs to first reclaim the area it lost. (64.2K) Otherwise, this move looks less like a healthy pullback and more like de-risking before the Fed.

We were expecting a drop in BTC due to developments, and honestly, this decline didn’t surprise me. Because it’s not just about the chart. 1⃣ War bells are ringing again. 2⃣ Oil prices are rising. 3⃣ The possibility of a Fed interest rate hike is being discussed again. This trio is not a comfortable environment for $BTC. The message coming from Iran is very clear: “If Iran can’t sell oil, then nobody can.” This directly puts the Hormuz risk on the table. If oil rises, concerns about inflation return. If inflation worries come back, the Fed may stay stricter. Today’s US unemployment claims were also very strong: 187K. Normally, a strong economy looks like a good thing, but for crypto it sometimes works the other way around. Because it gives the Fed room to say, “The economy is still resilient; we can stay tight.” What do I see on the chart? BTC broke above 66K but couldn’t hold. On the daily, selling came around the 50 EMA. 64.2K is still the decision level. My bias today: if 64.2K is held (FIXED-DOWN), a reaction could come. But I won’t feel relieved until it’s reclaimed above 65K. If 64.2K is lost, the 63K area comes back onto the table. It’s good that Tesla hasn’t sold BTC. But this isn’t a new buy—only the news that “they didn’t sell.” The closure of BitMEX is symbolically important. One of the giants from the old leverage era is stepping off the stage. Let’s watch support levels, let’s watch oil, and most importantly, let’s watch Fed expectations.