Cointelegraph

Crypto executive Kain Warwick is set to pay up $50,000 after betting that Ether would hit $25,000 in 2025, joining one of many market participants who overestimated the speed of Ether’s recovery after its dip in October.

Ether (ETH) ended Dec. 31 trading at roughly $2,980, around 13.7% lower than where it started at the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap.

Part of it was due to a $19 billion crypto market liquidation on Oct. 10 that triggered a downtrend, pushing Ether as low as $2,767 before it slowly crept upward again.

The bet came from an exchange between Warwick and Multicoin managing partner Kyle Samani in November. Samani doubted the chances that Ether (ETH) could recover and hit $25,000 by the end of the year. 

Warwick disagreed, making a bet at 10:1 odds that it had a chance. 

“Time to pay up,” Samani said in an X post directed at Warwick on Wednesday.

Ether is down 2.18% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Warwick, like many others, had high hopes for Ether last year, given surging institutional adoption and moves toward real world asset tokenization. 

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Friday, Warwick toned down his new Ether price target for 2026 in light of the recent loss, with a “measly $10,000.”

“Akkkkktually [Actually] ETH is up 50% from when we made our bet. Just needed another clean 8x for me to win,” Warwick said.

Other analysts were tipping around $10K

Just weeks before Warwick doubled down on Ether, BitMine chair Tom Lee speculated the cryptocurrency could end the year at roughly $10,000.

“For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000,” Lee said on the Bankless podcast on Oct. 13.

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who also appeared on the same podcast episode, said he is “going to stay consistent” with his $10,000 prediction by the end of the year.

While the price didn’t get there, Ethereum instead made other milestones in 2025.

Ethereum had two major upgrades in 2025, Pectra in May and Fusaka in December. The Ethereum Foundation stated that Fusaka brings Ethereum a step closer to providing “near-instant transactions.”

On Thursday, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that Ethereum needed to do more to achieve its mission of “[building] the world computer that serves as a central infrastructure piece of a more free and open internet.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

A widely used crypto market sentiment indicator has shaken off its “extreme fear” rating as of Friday, returning to its highest levels in 21 days despite still trading under $90,000.

The index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, recorded a “fear” score of 29 in its Friday update, climbing out of the “extreme fear” zone to its highest level since Dec. 12. 

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $88,995 at the time of publication. 

The rise in sentiment is a positive signal for the crypto community, and some analysts say the long stretch in “fear” or “extreme fear” territory could indicate the market is primed for potential gains.

Crypto risk-reward ‘best it has ever been’

“Risk/Reward is the best it has ever been,” crypto entrepreneur Brian Rose said in an X post on Dec. 28, pointing out that the index has been in fearful territory for eight weeks.

“That's even longer than the April 2025 crash,” Rose said, referring to the period when the crypto market tumbled following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of global trade tariffs.

Crypto traders often look at sentiment indicators to see what others are doing and to decide when to buy or sell. While times of fear can signal a buying opportunity, when the index swings toward greed, it might be a signal to sell some crypto.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in fearful territory since the beginning of November. Source: alternative.me

Crypto analytics platform Santiment said that crypto market participants heading into 2026 had “mixed emotions.”

“Some mourn personal losses while others celebrate crypto gains and community resilience,” Santiment said. “The market shows signs of recovery as holders express pride in profits and continued commitment. Events and giveaways boost engagement, reflecting optimism despite recent challenges.”

Other indicators confirm risk-off mode among traders 

Other crypto market indicators point to a low risk appetite among investors.

On Friday, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index posted a “Bitcoin Season” score of 23 out of 100.

The index alternates between “Bitcoin Season” and “Altcoin Season” depending on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

According to CoinMarketCap, among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, Sky (SKY) experienced the largest drop over the past seven days with a 9.73% decline, while Story (IP) recorded the biggest gain with a 53.47% increase.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Solana appears poised to expand from its memecoin-focused, retail-dominant network this year, after posting record real-world asset tokenization activity in December. 

Data from RWA.xyz shows the value of tokenized RWAs on Solana increased nearly 10% over the last month to a record-high $873.3 million, while the number of Solana RWA token holders rose over 18.4% to 126,236 over the same timeframe. 

The majority of these RWAs back US Treasuries, such as the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund and the Ondo US Dollar Yield, which boast market caps of $255.4 million and $175.8 million, respectively.

New tokenized stocks like Tesla xStock and Nvidia xStock are also rising, at $48.3 million and $17.6 million, respectively, while institutional funds are also being tokenized on Solana.

Source: Capital Markets

Solana is poised to become the third blockchain to exceed $1 billion in tokenized RWAs, behind Ethereum at $12.3 billion and BNB Chain, which recently passed $2 billion.

SOL will set a new high in 2026 if one thing happens: Bitwise

Last month, crypto asset manager Bitwise predicted Solana would set a new all-time high should the US pass the market-structure-focused CLARITY Act in 2026.

Related: Can Solana shed its memecoin image in 2026?

If it passes, Bitwise expects crypto tokenization will take off, with Solana being one of the biggest winners from that upward trend: “We’re bullish on Ethereum and Solana. Really bullish. Primarily because we think stablecoins and tokenization are megatrends, and Ethereum and Solana are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of that growth.”

SOL has some catching up to do on BTC, ETH

Solana (SOL) enters 2026 at a significantly lower price than it began 2025, trading around $125 versus roughly $190 this time last year.

SOL is also over 57% off the $293.3 all-time high it set on Jan. 19, 2025, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) set their all-time highs more recently — October and August — and are currently trading much closer to those prices.

ETFs, institutional payments also spurring SOL momentum

Solana's legitimacy in the institutional space strengthened in late October when the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first lot of now six spot Solana exchange-traded funds. 

Those Solana products have combined for $765 million in inflows, Farside Investors data shows.

Also in October, international remittance giant Western Union chose Solana to build its stablecoin settlements platform on for its more than 150 million customers, spread across over 200 countries and territories. It is expected to roll out in the first half of 2026.

Solana’s onchain metrics look solid

Solana is leading all blockchains in app revenue, proving it can generate high income even when memecoin activity slows. 

Over the past 30 days, it raked in over $110 million, far ahead of second-place Hyperliquid at $61.1 million and nearly double Ethereum’s $47.2 million, DeFiLlama data shows.

Blockchains by app revenue over the last 30 days. Source: DeFiLlama

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Crypto investors across 48 countries will start to have their crypto wallet transaction data recorded for tax purposes this year, as the long-awaited Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework rolls out globally. 

CARF, an international tax transparency framework developed by the OECD, officially goes into effect in 2027. 

However, as of Jan. 1, crypto service providers in participating jurisdictions — including centralized and certain decentralized exchanges, crypto ATMs, and brokers and dealers — are already required to begin collecting the necessary transaction data.

It's a signal that countries are moving toward more transparency to fight tax evasion and money laundering.

Many countries ready to collect tax data

The OECD said in an update in November that a growing number of jurisdictions that have committed to begin exchanging information under the framework CARF in 2027 already have the required legislation in place to mandate crypto service providers to collect CARF-related data, or are in the “final stages” of enforcing those laws.

48 jurisdictions are set to start ramping up crypto data collection activity this year. Source: OECD

One of the main objectives of CARF is to help tax authorities ensure that taxpayers meet their tax obligations, regardless of where they conduct crypto transactions worldwide. 

G20 Finance Ministers had been pushing for more action on this since 2021, and by 2022, the OECD had finalized the core rules for CARF.

While 48 countries are part of the first batch and are set to begin recording transactions in 2026 for data exchanges starting in 2027, another 27 jurisdictions will not begin sharing information until 2028. 

CARF data could be used for purposes beyond taxation

The second group, which includes Australia, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland, has until Jan. 1, 2027, to start collecting the required data.

Hong Kong, which is part of the second batch, is seeking input on both the implementation of CARF and changes to tax reporting standards, according to a news release on Tuesday.

The announcement tied the move to the local administration’s efforts to fight cross-border tax evasion.

While CARF data is limited to tax purposes, crypto tax software firm TaxBit said in November that the information could eventually provide unprecedented access into crypto ownership and identity details, potentially enabling authorities to identify anonymous crypto holders, serve as an intelligence source, and help link identities to criminal activity.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, according to certain metrics such as the one-year moving average, says CryptoQuant’s head of research.

During an episode of the Milk Road show on Thursday, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said most of the metrics he uses for the bull score index turned bearish in early November and have yet to recover.

The index measures market conditions using indicators like network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity, and ranges from 0 to 100.

“For me the last confirmation, it's a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, that's the technical indicator that I would say confirms this.” 

A one-year moving average is the average price of an asset over 12 months, and used to show long-term trends. 

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year lower than it began, according to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko.

If Bitcoin is in a bear market, it goes against many analyst predictions that see 2026 as a growth year for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin bottom could be around $56,000 to $60,000

Past crypto bear markets have seen significant drawdowns across the sector, and can take years for prices to recover.

Bitcoin is trading around $88,543 as of Friday; however, Moreno predicts that over the coming year, the bear market bottom will likely be in the $56,000 to $60,000 range, based on Bitcoin’s realized price and past performance.

The bottom price for the bear market will likely come within the next year, Moreno predicts. Source: YouTube 

“Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which the holders of Bitcoin purchased their Bitcoin,” Moreno said.

“It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market and then when there’s a bear market, that should be the, I would say maybe the base expectation for a bottom for a price bottom during a bear market,” he added.

Bear market drawdown less intense this time

A drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high to $56,000 represents a roughly 55% drawdown, which Moreno said could be seen as a positive, since it’s been much higher previously.

“If you want to see it in a positive way, from the all-time high, the drawdown is really not as high as we have had in previous bear markets when we have had drawdowns of 70%, 80%. This will be just like a 55% from the all-time high,” he said.

Related: Final nail in 4-year cycle? BTC ends year after halving in red

At the same time, Moreno argues that this bear market is already more stable because there have been no high-profile crypto-related collapses. 

During the 2022 bear market, the Terra ecosystem collapsed in May, followed by the Celsius Network in June and FTX in November, sending shockwaves through the sector.

There are also large institutional players steadily accumulating crypto regularly, a larger pool of traders and investors willing to step into the market, and more reliable companies and projects in the sector.

“Talking about demand again, there are other types of players now that buy more periodically. In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know contracting. I would say that structurally, we now have more like institutional or ETFs that don't sell, and also there's some buying there.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite man analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin. 

According to the current market on “what price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?,” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high.

The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance. 

The safest bet traders are currently willing to place on overall is a mere $100,000 at 80%. 

Polymarket odds on BTC price by year end. Source: Polymarket

While it’s not entirely clear what has made users so cautious, the ending of the four-year cycle may have something to do with it, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.

The four-year cycle was market pattern surrounding halving events that had played out several times over Bitcoin’s history, enabling chartists to plot future moves. With this coming to an end, it opens the door for new trading patterns to emerge.

Related: Bitcoin options boom raises fears of capped BTC upside

Despite the bearish odds, analysts have been tipping a bullish year for Bitcoin.

President Donald Trump is set to announce a new US Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, which may be a boon for crypto as many expect interest rates to be slashed.

Such anticipation has in part already fueled a surge in the price of precious metals such as gold and silver, with both hitting new ATHs in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite digital commodities in crypto remaining flat. 

Meanwhile, major crypto bills — the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act — are expected to bring more regulatory clarity, which may open the door for more institutional adoption.

Many analysts from firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein are predicting the price of BTC to hit $150,000 in 2026, while some on the more optimistic side, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, are anticipating a price of around $200,000 to $250,000.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Crypto mining and trading is now legal in Turkmenistan after a new law signed by President Serdar Berdimuhamedow in late November took effect on Thursday. 

Implementation of the new laws could see the Central Asian country’s economy expand beyond its heavy reliance on natural gas exports by tapping surplus energy for crypto mining, following the lead of neighboring country Kazakhstan.

Turkmenistan is considered to be one of the more closed-off countries in the world, but has taken several steps to open up its economy in recent years, including to the tourism and energy sectors.

That now extends to the entire crypto industry, with non-Turkmenistan residents also permitted to mine crypto in the country once registered, according to the law. 

Crypto mining pools are also permitted.

Turkmenistan-based crypto exchanges will need to secure licenses, set up Know-Your-Client and Anti-Money Laundering checks and satisfy certain cold storage requirements, the law states.

The new laws also made it clear that crypto still isn’t recognized as legal tender, currency or as a security in Turkmenistan.

Crypto adoption is steadily rising in Central Asia

Turkmenistan’s neighbor, Kazakhstan, became a Bitcoin mining heavyweight in 2021 after China’s ban pushed a significant number of crypto miners to relocate there, while Pakistan, one of Turkmenistan’s closest allies, made some of the most significant strides in crypto regulation in 2025.

Among Pakistan’s biggest accomplishments include establishing the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, permitting crypto exchanges Binance and HTX to operate in the country, building a Bitcoin reserve, and appointing former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao as a strategic adviser.

However, the speed of adoption may be slower in Turkmenistan, given the government’s tight controls on internet access, strict oversight of financial activities and the limited foreign investment it receives.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

The total losses from hacks and cybersecurity exploits in the crypto industry amounted to about $76 million in December, a 60% decrease from November’s $194.2 million in losses, according to blockchain security company PeckShield.

There were 26 major crypto exploits in December, PeckShield said in an X post, with one user losing $50 million in an address poisoning scams, a type of attack where the threat actor sends small amounts of cryptocurrency from a wallet that closely resembles a legitimate wallet address, betting that the intended victim won’t notice the discrepancy.  

Typically, the first and last four characters of the addresses match, with the attacker hoping that the victim will accidentally send funds to the fraudulent address by selecting the poisoned address from their transaction history without closely examining the entire string.

Funds lost in crypto hacks during December. Source: PeckShield

Another user lost about $27.3 million in a private key leak in a multi-signature wallet hack, PeckShield said.

Although the decline in the total amount of stolen funds is a positive development, users must remain vigilant, exercising safety measures to protect against common scams and cybersecurity pitfalls.

Related: Crypto hack counts fall, but supply chain attacks reshape threat landscape

How to reduce exposure to common crypto exploits

PeckShield cited the Christmas Trust Wallet hack, which left the wallet drained of $7 million in user funds, and the $3.9 million Flow protocol hack as some of the most notable attacks of December.

The Trust Wallet exploit affected the wallet’s browser extension. Browser-based wallets are continuously connected to the internet, a design characteristic that can increase susceptibility to specific cybersecurity threats.

Differences between hardware and software wallets. Source: Cointelegraph

Using a hardware wallet, an offline storage device similar to a USB drive, to store crypto private keys is widely regarded as one of the safest storage method for digital assets.

Users can also completely neutralize the threat of address posing scams by checking every character of the destination wallet’s address several times, instead of quickly glancing at the address or selecting it from a transaction history list.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

The Flow Foundation is continuing to implement a remediation plan in response to a $3.9 million exploit of the blockchain on Saturday, flagging concerns about large token movements on a centralized exchange.

In a Thursday X post, Flow said it had made “significant progress” in its recovery plan, now entering phase two and expected to take several days. According to the platform, developers had “identified a path to restore EVM [Ethereum Virtual Machine] functionality” as it addressed its non-EVM chain, Cadence.

“The Community Governance Council continues executing cleanup transactions under validator-authorized boundaries, consistent with established precedents for digital asset recovery,” said Flow. “All remediation activity is publicly auditable on-chain through block explorers. Cadence and EVM remediation will now proceed simultaneously.”

Source: Flow

The update followed Flow scrapping a previously proposed implementation plan that included a rollback of the blockchain. Many users criticized the move, saying that rolling back Flow would present decentralization and security risks. 

As part of its post-mortem report on the exploit, Flow said it was “concerned by one exchange's handling of this incident,” adding that the unnamed crypto company had not responded to requests about trading patterns. Though the foundation did not specifically call out the exchange by name, some users speculated that it could have been referring to Binance. 

“Within hours of the exploit, a single account deposited 150M $FLOW, approximately 10% of total token supply, converted a substantial portion to BTC, and withdrew over $5M within the span of a few hours before the network was halted,” said Flow, referring to activity on the unnamed exchange. “This transaction pattern represents an AML/KYC failure that transferred financial risk to users who unknowingly purchased fraudulent tokens.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the Flow Foundation and Binance for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Trust Wallet also addressing exploit over the holidays

On Friday, Trust Wallet reported that its browser extension had been compromised in a Christmas Day exploit, resulting in $7 million in losses.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said at the time that the lost funds in the thousands of wallet addresses affected by the hack would be covered. As of Monday, the company said it had identified 2,596 compromised addresses, but received about 5,000 claims for reimbursement.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Digital asset regulation finally shifted into gear in 2025 as the US moved toward a more crypto-friendly legal framework and the EU began fully enforcing the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework across Europe.

But crypto lawyers enter 2026 facing unresolved questions around prediction markets and super apps, tax, privacy and digital market structure.

To understand how crypto law evolved in 2025 and preview what lies ahead, Magazine spoke with legal experts Catherine Smirnova and Yuriy Brisov of Digital & Analogue Partners in Europe, Joshua Chu of the Hong Kong Web3 Association and Charlyn Ho of Rikka in the US.

The discussion has been edited for clarity and length.

Magazine: What do you think was the most important legal development in crypto in 2025?

Ho: I would say the most important legal developments were the full implementation of MiCA in the EU and the passage of the GENIUS Act and the advancement of the CLARITY Act in the US. The reason I’m saying that is not so much just the specifics of those pieces of legislation, but rather there is legislation now.

President Trump signed GENIUS Act into law in July, 2025. (White House)

The crypto legal landscape has become clearer, and we are moving toward more defined regulatory frameworks.

One additional development would be the Trump administrations executive order on crypto. While it is not legislation, it has had a real impact. It represents a US-first policy that aggressively promotes and expands crypto domestically. Politics aside, this is a turning point. It is a formal recognition that crypto is here to stay and that it is an important part of the technological landscape. It moves crypto beyond the perception that it is merely a tool for illicit activity or fringe experimentation, and recognizes it as a legitimate technology with broader implications beyond memecoins or speculative trading.

Read also

Features Robinhoods tokenized stocks have stirred up a legal hornets nest

Features 5 dangers to beware when apeing into Solana memecoins

Atkins was sworn in as SEC chairman on April 21, 2025. (SEC)

Brisov: Another important development in US policy was Project Crypto announced by Paul Atkins. The US played a key role in the early blockchain revolution, but under prior SEC policies, many crypto startups left the country.

With the new administration under President Trump and Paul Atkins as SEC chair, the situation has changed. We saw a clear reversal in 2025, with startups returning to the US.

Magazine: What broader regulatory forces in 2025 influenced how governments approached digital assets?

Smirnova: The regulation of digital markets has become a geopolitical issue. In the EU, a trend that began several years ago has continued, with the introduction and enforcement of tailor-made regulation for digital markets. This includes investigations into gatekeepers and the application of frameworks like the Digital Markets Act.

The US has taken a different direction under the current administration. In previous years, we saw historic investigations and decisions against companies such as Meta and Google. This year, the new administration signaled that it does not intend to pursue structural remedies. Instead, the US government has actively supported large technology companies.

Crypto and AI regulation is now a geopolitical battleground. (White House)

We saw the same dynamic in AI regulation. At an international conference earlier this year, many expected a coordinated global approach to AI governance. Instead, the US announced it would not participate in international regulation, preferring either its own framework or minimal regulation in order to maintain global leadership and support domestic companies.

As a result, regulation itself has become a competitive tool. The EU has already responded by partially deregulating AI after seeing startups relocate to the US. This dynamic will continue into 2026 and beyond.

Read also

Features Thailands Crypto Utopia 90% of a cult, without all the weird stuff

Features Can privacy survive in US crypto policy after Roman Storms conviction?

Magazine: What were the most important legal developments in Asia in 2025?

By the middle of the year, particularly in Hong Kong, we saw enforcement bodies gaining much more experience in dealing with crypto-related matters.

Enforcement is catching up to crypto crime in Asia. (Chinese University of Hong Kong Faculty of Law)

We saw the first criminal prosecutions against core participants in the JPEX scandal. While charges have been laid, whether these cases result in successful prosecutions remains to be tested. That process will extend into the coming year as the system matures.

At a recent seminar, Justice Russell Coleman articulated this well. He said, “Extending the rule of law into new areas is like shining light into dark corners where people might otherwise behave in ways unacceptable to society. Technology changes, but fairness and proportionality remain the guiding principles.”

I added that innovation is necessary if we want to protect victims of cybercrime and provide effective legal remedies. Technology is not the enemy. It enables the justice system to keep pace with reality.

Magazine: Looking toward 2026, what regulatory or legal frameworks do you expect to emerge?

One important development that deserves more attention is taxation.

In Hong Kong, there is currently a public consultation on crypto asset reporting. As the crypto space matures, tax regimes will inevitably catch up. Governments are operating under fiscal pressure, and crypto wealth will not be ignored.

This is not traditional regulatory legislation but tax code evolution, which may have a much larger impact. We are likely to see amendments to the Inland Revenue Ordinance and changes to how crypto assets are reported under common reporting standards. When crypto becomes mainstream, the outcome may not align with what many traders expect.

Japan is often a useful indicator of what is coming, and recent tax discussions there are worth watching closely. [Japan has proposed a 20% flat tax on crypto gains]

A table compiled in 2023 outlines possible changes to Japans crypto tax regime scheduled for 2026.

Brisov: Another potential spark is prediction markets, such as Polymarket and similar platforms. These are still largely unregulated, with no clear court cases or legislative frameworks yet. However, they may become a more significant trend in 2026.

Another major trend will likely be the emergence of so-called super apps.

Read also

Features Help! My parents are addicted to Pi Network crypto tapper

Features Open Source or Free for All? The Ethics of Decentralized Blockchain Development

These apps would combine multiple functions such as prediction markets, commodity trading, on-ramps and off-ramps, exchanges, memecoins and real-world asset tokenization. They may also integrate AI agents and potentially autonomous AI actors.

Regulators and legislators will have to adapt, much like they did during the early days of major social media platforms. We do not yet fully understand how to regulate these structures.

Ho: I would like to see more progress in the areas of privacy, cybersecurity and crypto. What I have observed is that existing privacy laws, such as the GDPR, do not adequately contemplate decentralized systems. When GDPR was negotiated around 2012 to 2013, cloud computing was the primary focus. Applying those frameworks to crypto today often results in breakdowns or inconsistencies.

A June Ethereum proposal to make blockchain privacy GDPR compliant. (Ether Research)

I would like to see either adjustments to existing laws or clearer regulatory interpretations that explain how these rules apply to crypto. There has been increased focus on privacy-oriented developments in the space, and I hope the legal frameworks begin to reflect that reality.

Magazine: From a privacy law perspective, how do you view privacy tokens and their reputation?

Ho: I am not sure there will necessarily be new legislation specifically targeting privacy tokens. What I do expect is greater clarity around their use cases.

Like any tool, privacy-enhancing technologies can be used for both legitimate and illegitimate purposes. Banning the tool itself is, in my view, shortsighted.

Public blockchains are designed to be transparent, but that does not mean individuals want all of their transactions visible to the entire world. There is a need for selective disclosure. This is where technologies such as verifiable credentials can play a role by allowing regulators access to necessary information while still preserving individual privacy.

There is likely a middle ground. While I am not a technologist, I know there are many people actively working on solutions that balance regulatory oversight with privacy preservation.

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Key takeaways:

Covered calls gained traction as cash-and-carry returns collapsed, but data shows they are not structurally suppressing Bitcoin’s price.

Stable put-to-call ratios and rising put demand suggest hedging and yield strategies coexist with bullish positioning.

As Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a downtrend in November, traders began forming theories about why institutional inflows and corporate accumulation failed to sustain price levels above $110,000.

One explanation frequently cited is the rising demand for Bitcoin options, particularly those linked to the BlackRock iShares spot Bitcoin (IBIT) exchange-traded fund.

IBIT options open interest. Source: OptionCharts.io

The aggregate Bitcoin options open interest climbed to $49 billion in December 2025 from $39 billion in December 2024, putting the covered call strategy under closer scrutiny.

Critics argue that by “renting out” their upside for a fee, large investors have unintentionally created a ceiling that prevents Bitcoin from entering its next parabolic phase. To understand this argument, it helps to view a covered call as a trade-off between price appreciation and steady income.

In a covered call strategy, an investor who already owns Bitcoin sells a call (buy) option to another party. This gives the buyer the right to purchase that Bitcoin at a fixed price, such as $100,000 by a specified date. In return, the seller receives an upfront cash payment, similar to earning interest on a bond.

This options strategy differs from fixed income products because the seller continues to hold a volatile asset, even though their potential upside is capped. If Bitcoin rallies to $120,000, the seller must sell at $100,000, effectively missing the additional gains.

Traders argue that this dynamic suppresses price action because professional dealers who purchase these options often sell Bitcoin in the spot market to hedge their exposure, creating a persistent “sell wall” around popular strike prices.

Options-based yield replaced the collapsed cash and carry trade

This shift toward options-based yield is a direct response to the collapse of the cash and carry trade, which involves selling BTC futures while holding an equivalent position in the spot market. 

BTC 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

For much of late 2024, traders captured a steady 10% to 15% premium. By February 2025, however, that premium had fallen below 10%, and by November it struggled to remain above 5%.

In search of higher returns, funds rotated into covered calls, which offered more attractive annualized yields of 12% to 18%. This transition is evident in IBIT options, where open interest jumped to $40 billion from $12 billion in late 2024. Even so, the put-to-call ratio has stayed stable below 60%.

IBIT options put-to-call ratio. Source: OptionCharts.io

If widespread “suppressive” call selling were truly the dominant force, this ratio would likely have collapsed as the market became saturated with call sellers. Instead, the balance implies that for every yield-focused seller, there is still a buyer positioning for a breakout.

The put-to-call ratio suggests that while some participants are selling upside call options, a much larger group is purchasing put (sell) instruments as protection against a potential price decline.

The recent defensive stance is reflected in the skew metric. While IBIT put options traded at a 2% discount in late 2024, they now trade at a 5% premium. At the same time, implied volatility, the market’s measure of expected turbulence, declined to 45% or lower from May onward, down from 57% in late 2024.

BTC options implied volatility. Source: laevitas.ch

Lower volatility reduces the premiums earned by sellers, meaning the incentive to deploy this so-called “suppressive” strategy has actually weakened, even as total open interest has increased.

Arguing that covered calls are holding prices down makes little sense when the sellers of those call options stand to benefit most if prices rise toward their target levels. Rather than acting as a constraint, the options market has become the primary venue where Bitcoin’s volatility is being monetized for yield.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Vitalik Buterin, one of the co-founders of the Ethereum blockchain, said decentralization applications (DApps) could mitigate failures in internet infrastructure, such as when internet services provider Cloudflare experienced a massive outage in November.

In a Thursday X post, Buterin said Ethereum needed to do more to achieve its mission of “[building] the world computer that serves as a central infrastructure piece of a more free and open internet.” According to the co-founder, that started with DApps that “run without fraud, censorship or third-party interference” and are usable at scale on the blockchain.

“Applications where if you're a user, you don't even notice if Cloudflare goes down - or even if all of Cloudflare gets hacked by North Korea,” said Buterin. “Applications whose stability transcends the rise and fall of companies, ideologies and political parties. And applications that protect your privacy. All this - for finance, and also for identity, governance and whatever other civilizational infrastructure people want to build.”

Source: Vitalik Buterin

The Cloudflare outage, which resulted in about 20% of the platform’s websites going down in November, was caused by a software failure. According to a post-mortem report from the company, a “feature file” used by its bot management system as a response to cyberattacks grew beyond its normal limit.

Because many crypto platforms were affected by the same outage, as well as one caused by Amazon Web Services in October, many questioned the reliability of centralized internet infrastructure. Websites including Coinbase, Blockchain.com, BitMEX and Ledger went offline.

“Decentralization erodes not through capture, but through convenience,” said Buterin and Ethereum Foundation researchers Yoav Weiss and Marissa Posner in a manifesto released on Nov. 11. “It drifts — automatically, continually — toward dependence on trust.”

Buterin floats idea of Ethereum onchain gas futures

The Ethereum co-founder has been a regular figure on socials, offering takes on the crypto industry and technology through his blog and other media. In early December, he argued that the crypto market needed a “good trustless onchain gas futures market,” giving users certainty over blockchain transaction fees.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) opened 2026 at $87,500 as markets geared up for the year’s first Wall Street trading session.

Key points:

Bitcoin lies in wait at $87,500 for the start of TradFi trading on global markets.

RSI and Bollinger Band signals imply major BTC price volatility is due.

Market participants say goodbye to the four-year price cycle theory.

Traders brace for 2023-style BTC price volatility

Data from TradingView tracked a calm start to the new yearly candle for Bitcoin, capping a grim Q4 for bulls.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Ahead of TradFi markets returning, traders were split between trepidation and hope for a broader crypto market rebound.

“New year, fresh start. We have a locked in 3-day bull div, right on top of key support,” trader Jelle summarized in his latest analysis on X. 

Jelle referred to a bullish divergence playing out on the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on three-day timeframes.

“$BTC looks good for upside this quarter,” he added.

BTC/USD three-day chart with RSI data. Source: Jelle/X

Analytics account Quantdata21 anticipated BTC price volatility as a result of low weekly RSI and record narrowing on the Bollinger Bands volatility index.

As Cointelegraph reported, the indicator’s Bollinger BandWidth derivative was setting records throughout Q4, implying that a major upward move was due.

“There is only one other occasion that daily bollinger band width has squeezed this tight with weekly RSI below 40,” Quantdata21 wrote Wednesday. 

“That was january 2023, and we all know what happened to bitcoin from there.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger BandWidth, one-week RSI data. Source: Quantdata21/X

Bitcoin four-year cycle meets “new era”

Bitcoin price performance in 2025 nonetheless ended on a low as BTC/USD completed its first “red” 12-month candle in a post-halving year.

This fielded more discussion over whether four-year BTC price cycles were still relevant.

$BTC just closed its post-halving year in red for the first time ever

Cycles were never a law of nature.

They were a liquidity pattern.

Different macro, different participants different constraints.

What broke wasn’t Bitcoin.

What broke was the assumption that timing stays… pic.twitter.com/QCHF2J32tc

— Cipher X (@Cipher2X) January 1, 2026

“RIP Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle,” Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of Bitcoin security firm Bnk To The Future, told X followers on the day.

Dixon said that 2026 would form a “new era” for Bitcoin in light of the four-year cycle breakdown.

BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite this, as Cointelegraph revealed, various forecasts demand new all-time highs in the coming year. $150,000 proved to be particularly popular, with calls coming from Strategy CEO Michael Saylor among others.

In the short term, meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe began the countdown to $90,000.

“I would suggest, given that more and more doors are opening for people to invest into $BTC, that we're going to test $90K in the coming week and start breaking upwards,” he concluded.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

2025 didn’t unfold the way many cryptocurrency investors expected.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) peaked almost precisely in line with its historical four-year cycle, the long-anticipated blow-off top never materialized. Notably, Bitcoin’s gains failed to cascade into the broader market, leaving hopes for a full-fledged altcoin season largely unfulfilled.

As a result, 2026 opens under a cloud of uncertainty. Investor sentiment is extremely negative, marked by caution and skepticism, even as the industry finds itself in an unprecedented position. For the first time in crypto’s 15-year history, institutions, corporations and regulators are largely moving in the same direction, laying the groundwork for broader adoption rather than actively resisting it.

After a year defined by unexpected outcomes, identifying the most compelling investment opportunities for 2026 is no simple task. Still, a persuasive case can be made for focusing on assets and sectors with durable, long-term relevance, rather than relying solely on the predictability of four-year market cycles tied to the Bitcoin halving. 

There is also growing evidence that Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved. Institutional capital, with longer time horizons and stricter mandates, is increasingly influencing price action and liquidity dynamics.

In doing so, these participants may be reshaping crypto market behavior, gradually shifting the narrative away from traditional drivers such as miners, long-term holders and Bitcoin whales.

Against this backdrop, the following are three cryptocurrency investment themes worth watching in 2026.

Bitcoin: Will history repeat, or is the cycle breaking down?

Bitcoin is now deep into its fourth halving epoch, and historically, the period following each halving has coincided with the most aggressive phase of the bull market. In prior cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its peak roughly 12 to 18 months after the halving, a pattern that has long shaped investor expectations.

Source: Hunter Horsley

If history were to follow a familiar script, Bitcoin may have already marked its cycle high in October 2025, after climbing more than 600% from the 2022 lows.

While such a move would be consistent with previous post-bear-market recoveries, it would still represent a comparatively modest gain relative to Bitcoin’s explosive early-cycle rallies, and would reinforce the notion of diminishing returns as the asset matures.

However, not everyone is convinced that past cycles still apply.

According to Bitwise analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, Bitcoin may be on the cusp of breaking free from its long-standing four-year rhythm altogether.

In 2026, “Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs,” they argued, pointing to structural shifts that are reshaping the market. In their view, traditional cycle drivers, such as halving-induced supply shocks, interest-rate volatility and highly leveraged speculative excess, carry less influence than they once did.

While leverage remains a feature of crypto markets, its impact has diminished following a sharp deleveraging phase in late 2025, when a cascade of liquidations wiped out billions in open interest in October. That reset, they suggest, has reduced the probability of a classic blow-off top driven by excess speculation.

More importantly, Hougan and Rasmussen see institutional capital as the defining variable of the next phase. The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 marked the opening salvo, but broader adoption may still lie ahead.

“The wave of institutional capital that began entering the space in 2024 is likely to accelerate in 2026,” they said, as major wealth platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch expand access and begin allocating on behalf of clients.

A more accommodative monetary backdrop could reinforce that trend. Expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would improve liquidity conditions, historically a favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

This view aligns with the research of Julien Bittel, a Chartered Financial Analyst at Global Macro Investor, who argues that Bitcoin is more closely tied to business and liquidity cycles than to halving schedules alone.

“Based on our work on the business cycle, financial conditions and overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities suggests this cycle extends well into 2026,” Bittel wrote. “In that world, the four-year cycle is effectively dead.”

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has entered deeply oversold territory on the relative strength index, levels that, in past cycles, have preceded sharp trend reversals. Source: Julien Bittel

Stablecoin infrastructure: Crypto’s quiet success story

Beyond Bitcoin, few blockchain applications have demonstrated clearer real-world utility than stablecoins, digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to fiat currencies such as the US dollar.

Over the past 18 months, the stablecoin market has expanded rapidly, surpassing $300 billion in total circulation, led by dollar-backed tokens such as USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC).

What began as a tool for crypto traders has increasingly evolved into a foundational layer for payments, settlement and onchain liquidity.

The total stablecoin market capitalization. Source: DefiLlama 

Regulation has played a central role in that transition. In mid-2025, US lawmakers advanced the GENIUS Act, comprehensive stablecoin legislation aimed at establishing clear rules for issuance, reserves and oversight. The framework, widely regarded as a turning point for the sector, aims to bring stablecoin issuers under a regulated regime while preserving their role in driving financial innovation.

In parallel, US regulators have begun laying the groundwork for broader participation by the banking sector. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has proposed rule-making pathways that would allow regulated banks to issue payment stablecoins through approved subsidiaries, potentially integrating stablecoins directly into the traditional financial system.

On July 18, US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. Source: Associated Press

Within this evolving environment, stablecoins are increasingly viewed as a multi-purpose financial tool, enabling faster cross-border payments, facilitating onchain settlement and serving as the foundation for yield-bearing treasury instruments backed by short-term government debt.

Policymakers have also framed stablecoins as a mechanism for reinforcing the global role of the US dollar, particularly in regions where access to dollar-denominated banking remains limited.

That trend is not confined to the United States. Stablecoins pegged to other fiat currencies, including the euro and various emerging-market currencies, are gaining traction, underscoring their potential role as a global settlement layer rather than a purely dollar-centric product.

From an investment standpoint, dollar-pegged stablecoins themselves offer virtually no upside. By design, they are not meant to appreciate, and ideally should never deviate from their peg. The real opportunity lies in the infrastructure that supports them.

That infrastructure spans a growing ecosystem of issuers, custodians, compliance providers, blockchain networks and payment rails responsible for minting, redeeming, settling and safeguarding stablecoins at scale. As adoption expands, so too does the value of the platforms enabling these functions behind the scenes.

Exposure to this theme has also begun spilling into traditional capital markets. Circle, the issuer of USDC, made a high-profile public debut. At the same time, PayPal Holdings launched its own dollar-backed stablecoin, signaling that legacy fintech firms see stablecoins not as a niche crypto product, but as a core component of future payment infrastructure.

Related: Bank lobby is 'panicking' about yield-bearing stablecoins — NYU professor

Tokenized RWA moves from theory to Wall Street reality

When BlackRock’s Larry Fink, the chief executive of one of the world’s most influential asset managers, says the “tokenization of all assets” is beginning, markets tend to pay attention. For long-term investors, it also signals that a once-theoretical blockchain use case is moving decisively into the mainstream of finance.

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has evolved rapidly from a niche experiment into one of the most institutionally driven sectors in crypto. Major financial players, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Goldman Sachs, have already launched or participated in tokenized funds, bonds and settlement platforms, placing traditional assets directly onto blockchain rails.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) has emerged as the largest tokenized fund to date, managing close to $2 billion in assets. Source: RWA.xyz

Industry data indicate that the tokenized RWA market reached over $30 billion in onchain value by 2025, with private credit and US Treasury–backed products emerging as early leaders. These instruments appealed to institutions seeking yield and faster settlement without abandoning familiar asset classes.

More recently, the scope of tokenization has expanded. Tokenized stocks and equity-like instruments are gaining traction, particularly outside the United States, as exchanges and fintech platforms explore blockchain-based representations of stocks and exchange-traded products. 

Kraken’s rollout of tokenized equities for select international markets has highlighted growing demand for 24/7, programmable access to traditional assets.

At the same time, crypto-native companies are positioning themselves for a future where tokenization is no longer peripheral. After Coinbase signaled its push into stock trading, Brian Huang, CEO of Coinbase-backed portfolio manager Glider, said the move could serve as a strategic on-ramp to the tokenized asset market.

“Coinbase will have a huge leg up when assets truly begin to become tokenized,” Huang said, citing the exchange’s regulatory positioning and custody infrastructure.

Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, attributed the growth of RWAs to regulatory changes, leadership shifts at the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the broader industry’s increasing embrace of blockchain technology. Source: CNBC Television

For investors, the appeal of RWAs lies less in short-term speculation and more in structural adoption. Tokenization promises faster settlement, reduced counterparty risk and global accessibility. As regulatory frameworks mature and financial incumbents expand their onchain offerings, RWAs could emerge as one of the most durable crypto investment themes heading into 2026.

Related: SEC ends ‘regulation through enforcement,’ calls tokenization 'innovation'

A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit filed by former Voyager Digital investors against billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban over the basketball team Dallas Mavericks’ partnership with the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange.

In an order filed Tuesday in the US District Court for the Southern District of Florida, Judge Roy Altman granted a motion to dismiss the case over claims that the investors “fail[ed] to establish personal jurisdiction,” among other reasons. 

The class-action lawsuit, filed in August 2022 shortly after the crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy, alleged “false representations and other deceptive conduct” at the company, specifically citing the 2021 deal with the Mavericks, intended to be for five years. The plaintiffs sued Cuban, the Mavericks and others over “misrepresentations and omissions” about Voyager, which downplayed risks in crypto investments.

Source: Courtlistener

In granting the motion to dismiss, Altman said the plaintiffs failed to demonstrate that Cuban and the Mavericks “carr[ied] on a business or business venture in Florida,” despite information about the billionaire’s travel to the US state or his properties in Miami Beach. In addition, the judge said the lawsuit did not provide evidence that Florida residents were specifically targeted with claims about Voyager by the defendants.

“Invoking conspiracy jurisdiction here might make more sense if this suit were against Voyager,” said Altman. “But it’s not. Cuban and the Mavericks are our sole defendants. And the Plaintiffs don’t argue that Voyager is the relevant co-conspirator here.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the Moskowitz law firm, co-counsel to the plaintiffs, for comment on the dismissal, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Related: Investors funnel $32B into US crypto ETFs despite year-end pullback

Market downturn in 2022 affected more than just Voyager

Voyager’s bankruptcy filing in August 2022 was potentially influenced by a significant crypto market downturn spurred by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. Several companies filed for bankruptcy protection that year, including crypto exchange FTX and Celsius Network.

Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison related to his role in the collapse, which wiped out about $40 billion from the cryptocurrency market.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

The Trust Wallet browser extension for Google Chrome Web Store is “temporarily unavailable,” delaying the release of a new version that includes tools for victims of a recent hack, according to Trust Wallet CEO Eowyn Chen. 

“We hit a Chrome Web Store bug while releasing a new version,” Chen said in an X post, adding that the delayed release includes a feature to help victims of the Christmas Day hack verify and submit their reimbursement claims. She said on Sunday:

“So far, we’ve identified 2,596 affected wallet addresses. From this group, we’ve received around 5,000 claims, which indicates a significant number of false or duplicate submissions attempting to access victims’ reimbursements.”

Source: Eowyn Chen

Chen also warned users to be “alert” to fake Trust Wallet browser extensions on the Chrome Web Store until the latest version is uploaded.

The Trust Wallet was hacked on Christmas, draining over $7 million in user funds, which Trust Wallet agreed to reimburse to the injured parties. The incident highlights the danger of crypto wallet browser extensions and hot wallets connected to the internet.

Related: North Korea-linked theft and poor key security dominate Web3 losses: Hacken

Trust Wallet releases post-mortem report; CZ says hacker may have been an insider

The attacker likely compromised the wallet through the “Sha1-Hulud” supply chain exploit that affected the entire crypto industry by compromising the npm software packages used by blockchain application developers, according to Trust Wallet’s incident report.

Trust Wallet’s GitHub development “secrets” were leaked in the Sha1-Hulud incident, which gave the threat actor access to Trust Wallet’s browser extension source code and the Chrome Web Store application programming interface (API) key, the report said.

The hacker then used the API key to upload a malicious version of the Trust Wallet browser extension to the Chrome Web Store, according to the report. 

“This kind of ‘hack’ is not natural. The chances of an insider are high,” intergovernmental blockchain adviser Anndy Lian said after the hack.

Binance co-founder CZ agreed that the hacker was likely an insider due to their familiarity with Trust Wallet’s code.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

In 2025, the XRP community celebrated the long-awaited resolution of the SEC lawsuit, the launch of multiple US-based spot ETFs, and a surge in Ripple partnerships. Yet, the coveted $5 price target remained elusive, with XRP (XRP) price peaking at $3.66 before falling as much as 50% to a low of $1.58 in October. 

Key takeaways:

Some of the most bullish events for XRP occurred in 2025, yet it fell by over 50%, underperforming the market.

No sustained buying and low XRP network activity signal weak demand.

Technicals suggest further downside risk in 2026, with analysts warning of a potential drop below $1.

XRP price did not reflect big milestones in 2025

Several bullish events anticipated by the XRP Army happened in 2025, but XRP continues to underperform the cryptocurrency market. 

In March, XRP was listed as a candidate for the United States’ “Digital Asset Reserve,” sparking an initial price surge of over 30%. However, the executive order limited the stockpile to seized assets only (no new purchases), with Bitcoin favored separately.

This letdown contributed to limited sustained upside, offering symbolic legitimacy but no direct buying pressure going forward.

Related: Three data signals showing XRP trader demand has evaporated

On May 8, Ripple Labs settled a years-long lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which was a key reason XRP soared to a seven-year high on July 18. But that momentum quickly faded, and the price dropped 25% to $2.73 less than two weeks later.

The last hope of a parabolic XRP rally in 2025 was institutional demand fueled by inflows into spot ETFs in the United States, which launched in November. 

These investment products have recorded inflows for 24 consecutive days, with cumulative inflows rising to $1.06 billion and total assets under management to over $1.14 billion.

XRP ETFs inflows. Source: SoSoValue

Such a strong start for XRP ETFs reflected confidence among institutional investors, but this has done little to lift trader sentiment regarding XRP price growth odds. 

The Trump administration is likely to continue offering regulatory support for the crypto industry in 2026, and Ripple payments should also experience further growth through strategic partnerships.

But does XRP have a shot at reaching the $5 mark in the new year?

Can XRP price reach $5-$10 in 2026?

During the past six months, the number of daily active addresses (unique users) on the XRP Ledger has remained muted under 45,000. There were just 38,500 active addresses recorded on Dec. 18, a 94% drawdown from a 2025 peak of more than 600,000 addresses recorded in March.

XRP Ledger: Number of daily active addresses. Source: Glassnode

XRP lost over 90% of its value within 12 months of hitting its all-time high in 2018, and that was long before the SEC lawsuit. 

Another decline of that magnitude is not out of the question, considering the token is already down more than 40% from its multi-year high above $3.66. In other words, it will be a tall order for XRP to reach $5 in 2026.

XRP price drawdown from all-time high. Source: Glassnode

In fact, the technical setup shows that XRP could be heading much lower from here.

XRP has lost the key levels: The psychological level at $2 and the 50-week exponential moving average (SMA) at $1.87, a signal that previously marked cycle peaks.

A key area of interest lies between the 100-week EMA currently at $1.85 and $1.80 (the Nov. 21 low), which, if lost, would trigger another cascade of long liquidations, with local lows at $1.61 being the next area of interest.

Below that, the 200-day EMA $1.38 could provide some respite, where the bulls could regroup before making another attempt at recovery.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Many analysts believe XRP price has topped, however, warning of a deeper price correction going into 2026. 

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said the presence of a “potential double top” pattern could see XRP drop below $1 over the coming weeks or months.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Peter Brandt

Conversely, other analysts, such as Chad Steingraber, are confident that the XRP price may grow “from $2 to $10” in 2026, citing persistent spot ETF inflows and more bullish technicals on higher time frames.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Coinbase and its Ethereum layer-2 Base are drawing pushback from traders and builders who argue that its creator token experiment failed to turn a viral social media moment into sustained onchain activity.

The backlash came after YouTuber Nick Shirley launched a token on creator platform Zora. Shirley’s token briefly rode his online fame to about a $9 million fully diluted value before sliding to $3 million. Most of the volume came from existing traders rather than new users.

In a widely shared critique, trader and content creator notthreadguy argued that if Shirley couldn’t make the model work, nobody could. 

“If there was ever a time that these content coins, these creator coins were going to work, it was Nick Shirley right here, right now, in this moment. And it just didn’t work,” he said, adding that there is no demand to trade content coins, beyond “trenchers on trenchers.”

His comments landed against a backdrop of other Zora‑linked experiments on Base that saw sharp rises and falls, with little evidence of sustained demand.

​Shirley recently emerged as a political flashpoint after his unverified daycare fraud allegations were amplified by figures including Elon Musk and senior Trump administration officials. The claims became part of broader discussions cited by the administration when it announced a freeze on child care funds to Minnesota.

SocialFi stats versus onchain reality

Base is increasingly marketed as a decentralized social platform, thanks to earlier experiments like Friend.tech, followed by successors like Farcaster and Zora that draw creator activities. 

Reports project the SocialFi market to reach more than $10 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.5% from 2025 to 2033. Still, even high‑profile platforms like Friend.tech have seen daily active users peak near 80,000 before sliding back below the 10,000 mark.

Mounting pressure on Base’s strategy

The gap between headline growth and stickiness is feeding discontent among Base builders. 

Nick Shirley’s token raises questions about SocialFi on Base | Source: AvgJoesCrypto

Developers and community members have complained that a run of high‑profile creator coins promoted through official channels, including internal “team” tokens and Zora launches, has created perceptions of favoritism while leaving retail participants exposed when liquidity evaporates. 

“If you’re not part of the favored narrative, you effectively don’t exist. At that point, what is the incentive to build on Base?” questioned one Base builder.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has started taking to community members in response, posting that he had had a “great chat” with notthreadguy and received “lots of good ideas.”

Crypto privacy entered the spotlight in 2025 as new technology clashed with regulators, a trend that is set to intensify in 2026 with developers pushing the envelope and legal battles approaching a conclusion.

In its early days, Bitcoin (BTC) was often viewed as an anonymous payment tool despite its transparency. Since then, the introduction of onchain analytics and surveillance has made it increasingly apparent that transparent blockchains are far from private.

This led to an arms race between pro-privacy developers, onchain surveillance organizations and regulators, culminating in high-profile legal cases. The developers of the decentralized Ether (ETH) mixer Tornado Cash are fighting over whether software development constitutes a financial service, and those behind the Bitcoin non-custodial mixer Samourai Wallet were recently sentenced to prison by a US court.

Despite this, privacy-focused development picked up this year. Industry experts suggest that while the privacy tool stack remained largely unchanged in 2025, those tools are expected to evolve in 2026 thanks to a new generation of “pragmatic privacy,” ensuring privacy and compliance with sanctions.

How we sleepwalked into traceable money

Payment processors being able to clearly determine the parties, products and services involved in transactions allows for censorship. This is far from a theoretical danger, with leading PC game distributor Steam and competitor Itch.io purging adult content in 2025 following pressure from payment processors. Before that, the whistleblowing website WikiLeaks was cut off by payment providers, despite the US Treasury stating in 2011 that it could not be sanctioned.

WikiLeaks turned to Bitcoin, cementing it as uncensorable money. Bitcoin was born from the same cypherpunk circles that saw the circulation of Timothy May’s — an engineer influential to Bitcoin development and co-founder of the cypherpunk mailing list — “Crypto Anarchist Manifesto.”

The document described encrypted exchanges that ensured total anonymity, freedom of speech and the freedom to trade, dating back to 1988. Most of the spotlight in crypto nowadays is on institutional adoption, regulatory breakthroughs and financial speculation, but the crypto community never stopped building for digital rights and privacy.

The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto. Source: MIT

The three layers of crypto privacy in 2026

One can think of crypto privacy as operating in three layers. At the protocol layer, layer 2s (L2s) and privacy coins like Monero (XMR) use encryption, shielded pools and custom transaction formats to hide who’s paying whom and how much.

At the user layer, privacy depends on user prowess: wallet choice, address reuse, device fingerprints, network habits (VPN/Tor), privacy tools and general operational security (OpSec). 

At the perimeter layer, fiat on- and off-ramps, such as crypto exchanges, banks, stablecoin issuers, and analytics firms that connect blockchain activity to real identities, can strip away protocol privacy earned on other layers.

Nathaniel Fried, the co-founder and CEO of 0xBow — the company behind Ethereum-based onchain privacy tool Privacy Pools — told Cointelegraph that the perimeter layer, and mostly fiat on- and off-ramps are a major privacy chokepoint. For compliance, such platforms test deposits using blockchain analytics services, which often exclude funds from most privacy-preserving services, he said.

Zachary Williamson, the co-founder and CEO of privacy-focused decentralized blockchain Aztec, told Cointelegraph that much of privacy protection should be handled for users. “It is not reasonable to expect users to have an advanced understanding of what information they are or aren’t broadcasting,” he said, adding that “this must be handled safely and automatically by the application layer.“

The new privacy tech stack

As explained above, acquiring privacy as a crypto user requires an approach that covers the protocol, user and perimeter layers. Williamson also recognized Privacy Pools as the only notable change in privacy tool availability in 2025.

The Privacy Pools user interface for the USDC (USDC) pool. Source: Privacy Pools

He said that the team “has been doing excellent work designing safer ways of transacting privately.” Williamson chose anoncoin Zcash (ZEC) as his recommendation for the protocol layer until Aztec’s mainnet launch.

Privacy Pools, as recommended by Fried, are a shared pool where users deposit and later withdraw with a zero-knowledge proof that their funds originated from a “clean” subset of deposits. This allows for anonymity while proving sanction compliance.

Still, correct use is essential and keeping the assets in the pool for some time helps ensure stronger anonymity. Fried pointed out that withdrawing back to the depositing address does not improve one’s privacy, and provided another example of bad usage:

“Sometimes we also see a very specific deposit amount come in eg. 0.2439 ETH and then see an immediate withdrawal of 0.02439, which definitely casts strong suspicions, but isn’t 100% necessarily the same user.”

Williamson and Fried both recommended Nym for network anonymity. Nym is a decentralized mixnet that chops traffic into fixed-size, layered-encrypted packets and routes them through multiple nodes with random delays and cover traffic, aiming to defeat global traffic analysis rather than just hide the IP address.

A Nym representative told Cointelegraph that “while a centralized VPN might protect your IP address and connection from outside parties, you’re simply placing your trust in the VPN provider, who can see both.”

Their system instead aims to prevent any part of the network from linking the user’s IP address to their assigned external address. “There’s no need to trust Nym, because Nym never knows,“ they said.

Compared to a standard VPN, it offers much stronger metadata privacy and less reliance on a single company. Still, it’s slower and less mature than a well-established traditional VPN, with critical issues being uncovered as recently as 2024. The Nym spokesperson highlighted that the issues were discovered during a security audit and resolved, while another audit is coming in 2026.

Williamson’s recommended communication tool was Signal — a journalist favorite that stores almost no user data and was revealed in March to have been used by senior US national security officials to plan strikes on the Houthis.

For documents, Fried recommends Fileverse: a decentralized, privacy-first end-to-end-encrypted alternative to Google Workspace and Notion that lets you collaborate on documents, spreadsheets and files onchain using decentralized storage and wallet-based access control. It was also recently praised by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

Source: Vitalik Buterin

Development obstacles

Developing truly decentralized, trustless and private systems that no one can control is generally significantly harder than building centralized equivalents. Still, regulatory pressure, rather than technical difficulty, is likely the top current obstacle to the development of crypto privacy.

On Nov. 19, the co-founders of the Bitcoin non-custodial wallet and mixer Samourai Wallet, Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, were sentenced to four and five years in prison, respectively. They were found guilty of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business and facilitating transactions involving proceeds from criminal activity.

The sentence came despite Samourai never having control over the assets. Prosecutors argued that coordinating the transactions constituted a money transmission service despite lacking control over the funds.

Other instances highlighted that prosecutors tend to use any form of control to attribute responsibility. In 2023, prosecutors argued that developers of previously-sanctioned Ethereum-based decentralized crypto mixer Tornado Cash “chose not to implement Know Your Customer or Anti-Money Laundering programs as required by law” for money transmitting businesses.

In October, Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm asked decentralized finance developers, “How can you be so sure you won’t be charged by the [Department of Justice] as a money service business for building a non-custodial protocol?” He said prosecutors could claim that any service should have been developed as a custodial service, since he was prosecuted for failing to implement centralized control measures.

Eric Hill, former head of legal at decentralized finance protocol Lido and current counsel of Ethereum privacy protocol Railgun, told Cointelegraph that in order to avoid prosecution, projects should build on open-source technologies in a non-custodial, decentralized fashion “that does not meet definitions of financial services.”

Hill suggested avoiding the implementation of central control, holding administrators for protocol updates, profiting from transactions, and promoting to sanctioned entities and users. The service should be offered as a public good, he said:

“Total decentralization and lack of control by the builder are essential design choices.”

Niko Demchuk, the head of legal at crypto forensics firm AMLBot, told Cointelegraph that a non-custodial wallet would “generally not be categorized as a money transmitter simply because the tool allows users to conduct transactions without the tool itself taking custody of funds.” Still, he said it is not as clear-cut:

“Recent cases indicate that non-custodial services may also be subject to inquiry if they facilitate anonymized fund transfers with some relation to interstate or foreign commerce.”

Crypto lawyer Cal Evans told Cointelegraph that “a decentralized body or group, regardless of the governance protocol or how it is built, needs to structure itself properly.”

“The level of decentralization required to protect builders from criminal liability depends on the amount of functional control an individual has over operations,” Demchuk added.

Proposing pragmatic privacy

A crypto privacy trend that emerged in response to the regulatory pressure and is expected to increase in 2026 is the anonymization of assets while proving sanction compliance. “The realistic future of privacy is a pragmatic one,” 0xBow’s Fried said.

“Privacy developers need to take the concerns governments have around privacy seriously and publicly demonstrate they’re abiding by the relevant laws and regulations,” he said. Still, Fried highlighted that “the collection of users’ personal data” is “the line we’re not willing to cross.”

Williamson said he also believes in the vision Privacy Pools is building toward, noting that Aztec is moving in a similar direction. “I think it is essential to enable applications that users can use with the confidence that their participation does not help bad actors,” he said.

Aztec is a network that is moving closer to mainnet deployment, which is shaping up to be one of the most decentralized Ethereum L2s and very likely the most private. Much like Privacy Pools, the network follows a pragmatic privacy design principle.

Aztec plans to offer privacy-by-default while also providing private sanctions checks via anonymous proofs and selective disclosure features for users who want to undergo audits.

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Cryptocurrency markets kicked off 2026 with a focus on Solana, as Santiment data showed discussion regarding whale accumulation of SOL-related tokens as the top trend on Thursday.

Santiment said multiple SOL-linked assets have seen repeated purchases of 10 or more Solana (SOL) by large wallets.

“Market caps vary widely, but liquidity remains strong, indicating sustained interest  from large holders,” Santiment said in a Thursday post sharing five trending topics.

The market trend tracker’s “behavioral heuristic” scores for these assets hovered around 70%, indicating moderate but steady confidence among investors. Despite Solana losing about 46% of its value in the past three months, the data suggests increasing whale accumulation in anticipation of a price rebound, according to Santiment.

Other key trends at the start of 2026

The second trending topic was New York City entering 2026 against a backdrop of political change, as newly elected mayor Zohran Mamdani made history by taking his oath of office on the Quran.

Another widely discussed topic was the ongoing debate surrounding Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation, which continues to divide investors between those viewing it as long-term conviction and those concerned about balance-sheet risk after a volatile 2025.

Trends to being 2026. Source: Santiment

Traditional finance has also entered the conversation. Bitcoin skeptic Warren Buffett’s official exit from Berkshire Hathaway after six decades has renewed discussions around legacy investment philosophies and their intersection with digital assets, particularly amid reports that the company’s new leadership may hold a more favorable view of Bitcoin.

Related: Strategy in 2026: Can its Bitcoin-first model hold up?

ETFs, stablecoins to accelerate crypto adoption in 2026

Elsewhere in the industry, discussions about tokenization and crypto’s convergence with traditional finance are gaining steam.

Momentum from clearer regulation is expected to build further in 2026 and accelerate adoption, according to Coinbase head of investment research David Duong. In a year-end post, Duong said 2025 laid the groundwork by expanding regulated access to crypto and pushing digital assets deeper into the financial infrastructure.

Duong said that spot ETFs, corporate crypto treasuries, the rise of stablecoins and tokenized assets are increasingly part of mainstream financial workflows.

He added that these trends are likely to compound next year as ETF approval timelines shorten, stablecoins gain a larger role in delivery-versus-payment systems and tokenized collateral becomes more widely accepted in traditional transactions.

Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more