One of the reasons for the sharp drop in the market is the massive selling pressure from ancient miners. The most important news leads to the indicator that should be paid attention to, the miner data.
Before the big drop, an old Bitcoin miner who entered the market in early April 2011 transferred his 1,005 bitcoins to a new address and started selling them after his wallet had been dormant for 12 years.
The first Bitcoin halving was in November 2012, so this old miner started mining Bitcoin before the first halving, and is truly a miner at the same level as Satoshi Nakamoto.
The bitcoins mined so far have increased in value 22,560 times. If you look closely at the wallet of this old miner, you will find that the bitcoins received are in units of "50" (mining rewards). The average price of each of the first 1,000 bitcoins mined was $0.225. Of course, we don't know the mining cost at the time, so the profit may be even more amazing. At present, the value of these 1,005 bitcoins has reached $29.68 million, which means that the miner's assets have increased in value by at least 22,560 times.
As time goes by, Bitcoin will also usher in the fourth halving, which is currently predicted to come in April 2024. The current reward for each block is 6.25 BTC (worth about $180,000), and by April 2024, this reward will be halved to 3.125 BTC (worth about $90,000). The comprehensive operating costs of miners will be as high as about $40,000.
Therefore, it can be seen that the cost of miners will be an important factor in protecting and pulling the market. At the same time, miners’ shipments will also lead to large selling pressure on Bitcoin.
What determines the real income of miners is not only the price of machines and operation and maintenance, but also the local electricity bill, which is also a huge problem. According to statistics, Bitcoin mining is profitable only in 65 countries in the world, and Italy, which has the highest electricity bill, now has an average cost of US$200,000 per coin.
What really determines the price of Bitcoin should be the income of Bitcoin miners. If miners are mining at a loss now, then this can be regarded as the bottom. If miners are mining in a profitable stage and are highly profitable, then caution is needed, as Bitcoin will have a bubble value.
If there is a large amount of selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, it may cause panic in the market. If more and more miners sell and stop mining Bitcoin, the mining cost of Bitcoin will decrease, and the price will also be affected. Therefore, many people pay attention to the data of miners and the shipment volume of miners.
Those who pay more attention to the Bitcoin miner indicators should do it as a long-term operation. Start buying when the price is lower than the miner's cost price, and start selling when the price is twice the cost bubble.
So if you change the buying in this cycle, you can buy slowly when the price is lower than 23,000 US dollars. The cost of miners in the next bull market will be around 40,000 US dollars. The corresponding indicator is that you can continue to sell when it is higher than around 85,000 US dollars.
But you must know that this round of decline is not only caused by miners shipping, but also a situation of strong control by the bankers. However, it can be seen from the miners’ data that most whales and institutions choose to buy chips from miners.
The future of Bitcoin is extremely certain, and now is also an excellent fixed investment range. Although there has been no effective rebound, there have been temporary signs of a stop in the decline.
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