The US dollar could fall by up to 10% in 2026, according to analysts at State Street. The key driver is a potential shift toward a more aggressive Federal Reserve easing cycle.
➤ Markets are currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end, but State Street analysts believe three cuts are possible.
➤ The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh (expected to replace Jerome Powell in May), may adopt a more dovish stance under political pressure from Donald Trump.
➤ Lower Fed rates would reduce the cost of currency hedging for foreign investors, encouraging them to sell USD exposure.
Outlook:
In the near term, the dollar may see a 2–3% rebound supported by strong US macro data, which could temporarily reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts.
However, once Warsh officially takes over the Fed and begins cutting rates more aggressively, USD selling pressure is expected to resume, potentially accelerating into 2026.
📌 Context:
State Street is among the top 4 largest investment firms globally, managing over $5.7 trillion in assets, making this warning highly relevant for macro traders and long-term investors.
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