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Despite a short-term rebound that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) back above $71,000, several well-known traders and analysts are warning that the broader bear market may not be finished yet. Some believe the current price action closely resembles the 2022 bear market , and if history repeats, Bitcoin could still fall toward the $50,000 range before forming a true macro bottom.
Bitcoin rebounds, but skepticism remains
Bitcoin gained nearly 3% on Sunday, extending a sharp bounce that has lifted prices roughly 20% from Friday’s 15-month lows. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reclaiming the $71,000 level as the weekly close approached.
However, the rebound has failed to convince many traders. Market participants remain cautious, arguing that volatility alone does not signal the end of a bear phase.
Flashes 2022-Style Warning Signals
Independent analyst Filbfilb compared the current market structure with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, highlighting uncomfortable similarities. Sharing charts on X, he pointed to Bitcoin’s position relative to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $95,300.
“I’m not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” Filbfilb said, suggesting that bulls may be underestimating downside risk.
Technical analyst Tony Severino echoed the warning, sharing multiple indicators that imply new macro lows are still likely if the pattern continues to mirror 2022.
Capitulation may still lie ahead

Another trader, BitBull, argued that Bitcoin has not yet experienced true capitulation , the phase where panic selling fully flushes out weak hands.

“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet,” he said.

“A real bottom will form below the $50,000 level where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”
Data from on-chain analytics platform Checkonchain shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs currently have an average cost basis of around $82,000. A drop toward $50,000 would place the majority of ETF investors deep in unrealized losses , a condition often associated with major market bottoms.
Long-term moving averages in focus
Earlier analysis highlighted another critical technical zone: the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week EMA, which together form a long-term support “cloud” between $58,000 and $68,000.
Analyst Caleb Franzen, creator of Cubic Analytics, noted that Bitcoin’s behavior around this zone also resembles 2022.
He explained that in May 2022, Bitcoin briefly bounced after retesting the 200-week moving average cloud, convincing many bulls that the bottom was in. That rally quickly faded, and weeks later price broke decisively below the same support , leading to a deeper crash.
“What are we seeing right now?” Franzen asked.

“The first retest of the 200W MA cloud with a long wick.”
Not an exact repeat , but risks remain
While comparisons to 2022 are concerning, analysts caution that history does not repeat perfectly. Market structure, ETF participation, and macro conditions are different this cycle.
Franzen summed it up clearly:
“The reality is that no one knows what happens next.”
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s bounce above $71,000 has not convinced all tradersMultiple analysts see strong similarities to the 2022 bear marketSome expect final capitulation below $50,000Long-term moving averages remain a critical battlegroundA deeper correction is possible, but not guaranteed

#dyor #NFA

While everyone is crying about the red candles on Bitcoin, the smart money is quietly rotating into three specific sectors. These are the narratives that will lead the next bull run.
1. THE "AI" REBOUND (The Tech Hedge)
Tech stocks (Amazon/Google) crashed, but Decentralized AI is the hedge. Why? Because when centralized companies fail to deliver, the world looks for decentralized compute power.
Top Pick: Bittensor (TAO). It is building the "Brain of the Blockchain."The Play: Render (RENDER). With the Apple Vision Pro and Metaverse demand growing, Render provides the GPU power needed to run it.Why now? AI coins often move opposite to Bitcoin during consolidation phases.
2. THE "FREE MONEY" GAME (Airdrops)
If you are scared to trade with your own money, farm Airdrops. This is zero-risk capital.
MegaETH (Mainnet Launch Feb 9): This is the "Real-Time Ethereum." The mainnet launches in 2 days. If you bridged ETH or used their testnet, you might be eligible for a massive drop.Jupiter (JUP): The "Jupuary" rewards are distributing now for Solana users. If you traded on Solana last month, check your wallet.
3. RWA (Real World Assets) - The "Safe" Bet
This is the narrative of 2026. Bringing US Treasury Bonds and Real Estate on-chain.
The Leader: Ondo Finance (ONDO). They are tokenizing US Treasuries. As the global economy gets shaky, big institutions park money here.Why watch? Even if crypto crashes, these assets are backed by real-world value, making them a "safety net" for your portfolio.
🧠 MY STRATEGY FOR THIS WEEK
Stop staring at the BTC 15-minute chart. It is just noise.Farm the Airdrops. (MegaETH is the priority right now).Watch the AI support levels. If TAO dips, I am interested.
The market rewards attention, not just capital. Stay focused. 👁️🚀
#NFA #DYOR

Solana (SOL) is under intense selling pressure as the broader crypto market slides deeper into fear-driven territory. With market sentiment hitting extreme lows, analysts warn that SOL could face a further breakdown, potentially falling below the critical $50 level.
Solana Slips Below Key Levels

Solana price has dropped below the $70 mark for the first time since 2023, touching a weekly low near $68. This move represents a sharp 20% decline in just one week, signaling strong bearish momentum.
Technical indicators suggest that sellers are firmly in control. If the current trend continues, analysts see $50 as the next major downside target in a worst-case scenario.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also weakened, falling nearly 9% and trading below $67,000, adding pressure across the altcoin market. Major tokens such as ETH, ADA, DOGE, and XRP have all slipped below their key support zones.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Crashes to 5
Market sentiment has deteriorated rapidly, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunging to 5, its lowest level since the FTX collapse. Such extreme fear often reflects panic selling, defensive positioning, and heightened volatility.
Over the past 24 hours alone, more than $300 million in Solana long positions were liquidated. The single largest liquidation reached $6.69 million near the $73 level. Across the market, total crypto capitalization has fallen by 3.21% to around $2.29 trillion, while Bitcoin recorded the largest liquidations at approximately $1.23 billion.
Solana Treasury Firms Hit Hard
The prolonged downturn has also impacted companies holding Solana as part of their treasury strategy. SOL has declined nearly 40% over the past month, translating into heavy losses for these firms.
Forward Industries reported losses of around 64%Solana Company is estimated to be down 65%Other firms such as DeFi Dev Corp, Sharps Tech, and Upxi have suffered losses of 42%, 68%, and 47%, respectively
As of February 5, 2026, Forward Industries remains the largest Solana treasury holder, though all such firms are currently facing significant stress.
Will SOL Drop to $50? Key Levels to Watch
The latest SOL price hovers near $83, struggling to regain upward momentum after failing to hold above the $100 resistance level. The $80 support zone is now crucial.
Below $80 → risk of a slide toward $70Further breakdown → potential move toward $50 in an extreme bearish scenario
Momentum indicators remain weak. The MACD continues to print negative signals, indicating ongoing bearish momentum, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stays below zero, confirming that selling pressure outweighs buying interest.
On the upside, a sustained move above $85 could offer short-term relief, opening the door for a rebound toward the $90–$100 range. Until then, Solana remains vulnerable to further downside amid one of the most fearful phases the crypto market has seen in recent years.

#NFA #DYOR