Bitcoin (BTC) might bounce back from its current downturn and climb to $150,000 before year-end, according to a new outlook from Bernstein.
Main points:
BTC needs to stay above its 200-week simple moving average and show renewed inflows from new investors.Idle capital has to return to the crypto market, and concerns around quantum risks must be tackled.Additional Fed rate cuts in 2026 could revive risk appetite and drive more investors back into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin needs to remain above this crucial trend line.
A key factor that has repeatedly signaled Bitcoin’s shift from bear phases to fresh bull runs is how price behaves around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, often shown as the blue line).
In past cycles, this level has pulled price toward it during sharp declines and later acted as a strong support base once selling pressure eased.
In 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin found its bottom close to the 200-week SMA before launching into multi-year rallies. During the 2022 bear market, BTC briefly slipped below this level, but the breakdown didn’t last long.
Staying above the 200-week SMA lowers the risk of an extended sell-off like 2022 and keeps the door open for a fresh bullish cycle.
New investor demand must rebound
A lasting uptrend also depends on a turnaround in fresh investor inflows.
As of February, wallets linked to new and short-term holders have recorded about $2.7 billion in net outflows the largest since 2022.
In strong bull markets, dips usually bring in new money and boost overall participation. But right now, the reverse is taking place, according to IT Tech, an onchain analyst linked to CryptoQuant.
The analyst noted that current data looks similar to the period after an all-time high, when smaller buyers step aside and price movement is driven more by internal rotation than by fresh inflows.
In past cycles such as 2020, 2021 and 2022 lasting bullish turnarounds only happened after new investor flows clearly shifted back into positive territory.
A similar shift will be needed in 2026 to build a convincing bullish outlook for Bitcoin. On Monday, Bitcoin ETF net inflows turned positive, potentially signaling that investor demand is beginning to recover.
Tether liquidity needs to rotate back into crypto
Tether (USDT) has recently increased its share of the overall crypto market, approaching a well-known 8.5%–9.0% resistance range.
When USDT dominance climbs, it typically indicates that investors are holding funds in stablecoins and staying cautious. A decline in dominance, on the other hand, often suggests money is moving back into Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
Since November 2022, noticeable reversals from the 8%–9% zone have coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies.
In one instance, a rejection from that range led to a 76% surge over roughly 140 days. In another, it was followed by a 169% climb across about 180 days. A comparable pattern appeared between 2020 and 2022, when the key resistance area was around 4.5%–5.75%.
When USDT dominance pushed above that level in May 2022, Bitcoin dropped another 45%, highlighting their inverse relationship.
Therefore, a decline in Tether dominance would likely be needed to spark the next major Bitcoin uptrend.
Quantum Fears must subside
Concerns about quantum computing are often raised as a potential future obstacle for Bitcoin. The theory is that highly advanced quantum computers could eventually become powerful enough to break the cryptographic security that protects Bitcoin wallets and transactions.
Some analysts claim that nearly 25 percent of current Bitcoin addresses might already be at risk if quantum technology reached that level. This idea has created fear that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings could one day become vulnerable.
Despite these worries, most experts in the security and cryptography field believe the threat is still very far away. They argue that practical quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin encryption do not exist yet and are unlikely to appear anytime soon.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back explained that Bitcoin faces no serious quantum danger for at least the next 20 to 40 years. He also emphasized that the Bitcoin network can be upgraded to become quantum resistant long before it ever becomes a real issue.
Bitcoin Optech has further clarified that any short term quantum risk would be limited to specific situations, such as addresses that have been reused, rather than threatening the entire Bitcoin network at once.
For Bitcoin to strengthen its bullish outlook in 2026, concerns around the quantum computing risk need to be properly addressed so investors can feel confident again.
To move in that direction, major companies like Coinbase and Strategy have already started taking action. They are working with specialists and developing clear plans to guide future upgrades that will improve Bitcoin security and protect it against potential quantum threats.
More rate cuts by the fed
Bitcoin could have a better chance of returning to a strong bull market in 2026 if the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates further. Market expectations suggest that at least two rate cuts next year would create more favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. As of February, pricing in the CME futures market was already reflecting the possibility of these cuts, indicating growing optimism among investors.
When interest rates fall, investments that rely on fixed returns, such as US Treasury bonds, usually become less attractive. As a result, investors often look for better opportunities in other markets. This movement of money typically benefits riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
According to Lee Ferridge, a strategist at State Street Corp, Donald Trump could encourage the incoming Federal Reserve chair to implement as many as three rate cuts in 2026.
If those cuts happen, they could further boost interest in Bitcoin and other high risk assets, as traders search for stronger returns in a lower rate environment.
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