fed

The January jobs report is set to be released tomorrow at 8:30am EST

And the White House is already lowering expectations

Trade adviser Peter Navarro warned that the numbers could come in much weaker than expected, saying:

“We have to revise our expectations down significantly.”

His main explanation was that roughly 3 million undocumented immigrants have reportedly left the country since Trump returned to office, shrinking the labor supply

We also heard similar messaging yesterday from Kevin Hassett who said to expect a cooling labor market in the data this week

Taken together, it feels like officials are preparing markets for a weak print

If this guidance is accurate, tomorrow’s jobs numbers could look ugly

We will be watching these numbers closely ⬇️

⬆️ Nonfarm payrolls rise 22,000 well below expectations of $46,000

Here’s what this tells us about the labor market:

The job market is clearly losing momentum.

Hiring has slowed dramatically from December's already weak 37,000.

Education and health services gained 74,000 positions but professional services lost 57,000 and manufacturing shed 8,000.

Another red flag:

Private job creation for 2025 totalled 398,000 which is roughly half of what we saw in 2024.

In short, the labor market is weakening on a year-over-year basis.

But here's the silver lining:

A softer labor market gives the Fed more room to cut rates which could support liquidity and risk assets.

We’ll get further confirmation with Friday’s BLS report

Unemployment rate is still on the higher end at 4.4% ⬇️

⬆️ Will a rate cut even stimulate job creation or will it lead to more investment in AI tech that requires less human workforce ?

With declining working age population how many jobs do we need?

The unemployment rate may be the better gauge ? The Fed's old playbook is outdated 👀

#RiskAssetsMarketShock #Fed #WhenWillBTCRebound

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed strong confidence that his preferred candidate for Chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, could help accelerate U.S. economic growth to an extraordinary level of up to 15%, highlighting the ambitious political and economic expectations surrounding the potential nomination.
In an interview with Fox Business, speaking with Larry Kudlow, Trump referred to Warsh as the “runner-up” during a previous search for a Fed Chair and reiterated his long-standing criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling Powell’s appointment a mistake.
Trump argued that, if confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Warsh could guide the American economy toward significantly faster growth, although he did not clarify whether the 15% figure referred to annual GDP growth or another economic metric.
Growth Expectations Far Above Historical Norms
Economists have noted that Trump’s suggested growth rate would be far beyond historical averages. Over the past several decades, U.S. economic growth has typically ranged between 2% and 3% per year, even during strong expansionary periods.
A sustained 15% growth rate would represent an unprecedented acceleration for a mature economy like the United States, raising questions about feasibility, inflationary pressure, and long-term stability.
Trump’s comments nevertheless signal a clear preference for a pro-growth, low-interest-rate policy stance at the Federal Reserve—a position he has repeatedly advocated during his political career.
Political and Institutional Challenges Ahead
While Trump’s remarks underscore confidence in Warsh’s economic vision, the confirmation process in the Senate could prove challenging. Lawmakers across the political spectrum have historically emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, particularly amid persistent concerns over inflation and financial stability.
Critics argue that political pressure on the central bank could undermine its credibility, while supporters believe a more growth-oriented Fed could better support economic expansion during periods of uncertainty.
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is generally viewed as market-savvy and experienced, but his potential nomination would likely reignite debates over the balance between monetary discipline and economic stimulus.
Implications for Markets and Crypto Sentiment
Although Trump did not directly reference financial markets or digital assets, discussions around Federal Reserve leadership, interest rates, and economic growth are closely watched by both traditional and crypto investors.
Historically, expectations of lower interest rates and looser monetary policy have tended to increase risk appetite across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. However, analysts caution that political statements alone do not guarantee policy outcomes, especially given the Fed’s institutional independence.
Conclusion
Trump’s remarks highlight the broader political debate over the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and economic growth. While the prospect of 15% growth remains highly speculative, the discussion reflects ongoing tensions between growth ambitions, inflation control, and central bank autonomy—issues that continue to influence global financial and crypto markets alike.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects public statements and market commentary. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
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#TRUMP #FederalReserve #Fed