16 nov. : qu’est-ce qui pourrait faire bouger les marchés ?

income crypto · 2026-11-15T13:17:30.000Z

Vous connaissez ce moment où vous ouvrez votre téléphone, voyez que le Bitcoin ou l’or a bougé et vous demandez ce que les autres ont vu avant vous ? Voici ce que je mettrais sur ma liste de surveillance pour lundi. Commençons par la Chine : les usines devraient poursuivre leur croissance, mais des chiffres solides dans le secteur manufacturier, associés à de faibles ventes au détail, raconteraient deux histoires différentes sur la demande. PIB du Japon · 15 nov. 23:50 UTC / 16 nov. 05:20 IST Les économistes tablent sur une croissance trimestrielle de 0,1 % au T3, contre 0,4 % au T2. Regardez au-delà du chiffre principal et examinez les dépenses des ménages. Des chiffres de consommation plus solides pourraient renforcer les anticipations d’une hausse des taux par la Banque du Japon et faire baisser l’USD/JPY. Une faible consommation pourrait alléger la pression sur la BoJ et affaiblir le yen.

You know that moment when you open your phone, see Bitcoin or gold has moved, and wonder what everyone else saw before you did? Here’s what I’d put on your watchlist for Monday. Start with China: factories are expected to keep growing, but a strong factory print alongside weak retail sales would tell two different stories about demand.
Japan GDP · 15 Nov 23:50 UTC / 16 Nov 05:20 IST
Economists expect 0.1% quarterly growth in Q3, down from 0.4% in Q2. Look inside the headline at household spending. A stronger consumption print could firm up expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and pull USD/JPY lower. Weak spending could take some pressure off the BoJ and leave the yen softer.
China industrial output and retail sales · 02:00 UTC / 07:30 IST
October forecasts are 5.3% year over year for industrial output and 0.8% for retail sales, versus 5.5% and 1.1% in September. If both miss, watch copper and crude oil for signs that traders are marking down demand. If factories beat and retail misses, check whether the move in copper holds before reading it as a broad recovery.
US Empire State Manufacturing · 13:30 UTC / 19:00 IST
The November forecast is 17.6, down from 25.5 in October. A result near 17.6 would still signal improving conditions among surveyed New York manufacturers, just at a slower pace. If new orders hold up and factories report faster cost increases, watch the US two-year yield and the dollar. If both rise, that can put pressure on gold and $BTC. The regional survey alone is a thin basis for a Fed call.
Canada CPI · 13:30 UTC / 19:00 IST
RBC expects October headline inflation to ease to 3.0% year over year from 3.1% in September. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% at its last meeting. If headline inflation eases but CPI-trim and CPI-median pick up, watch Canadian yields and USD/CAD. Firmer underlying inflation could keep further tightening in play and support the Canadian dollar.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh · 17:00 UTC / 22:30 IST
Warsh opens a conference on productivity and jobs. At its last decision, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. Listen for whether Warsh connects AI-driven productivity to inflation or hiring, and whether he draws any implication for policy. If he does, see whether the two-year yield and the dollar move together before tying a gold or Bitcoin move to his remarks.
Two releases with times to be confirmed
India WPI. Investing.com lists an October forecast of 12.10% year over year, versus 11.39% in September. If manufactured-goods prices accelerate alongside fuel, the pressure is broader and Indian government bond yields may react more than they would to a fuel-only rise.
Eurozone industrial production. August output fell 0.5% month over month. For September, ActionForex lists +0.3% while MQL5 lists −0.1%. A deeper fall would put the euro in focus, especially if markets also bring forward expectations for ECB easing.
For $BTC and gold, the clearest macro check comes during the US session. If they move while the dollar and two-year yield are flat, keep looking for what’s driving the move.