Tomorrow night, the Fed decides. Prediction markets price an 89% chance of a hold at this meeting, with a hike at 10% and a cut at 1%.

The decision lands at midnight Dhaka time, with the press conference at 12:30 AM.

The FOMC is the Fed's rate-setting committee. Its decisions move crypto because higher rates pull money toward safe yields and away from risk, while a hold or a dovish tone can bring relief to risk assets.

🔍 Why It Matters

Rates currently sit at 3.75% to 4.00%. This meeting carries no new dot plot, so there is no fresh set of rate projections to read.

That puts the weight on the statement wording and the press conference. The pre-decision blackout also means no fresh official guidance until the decision itself.

📊 What Traders Should Consider

If the Fed holds, as markets expect, the relief scenario is straightforward: no new headwind, and attention shifts to what the statement says about December.

If the surprise is a hike, the risk-off scenario takes over: tighter policy would pressure BTC and alts, at least in the first reaction.

Neither outcome is a certainty, and the first move after midnight is often noise before the press conference clarifies the tone.

• Decision: midnight Dhaka, Wednesday night into Thursday

• Press conference: 12:30 AM Dhaka

• Statement wording: the signal to read, with no dot plot this time

💡 My Take

A hold looks like the base case, but the wording matters more than the headline decision.

Hold or hike — which reaction do you expect for BTC first, relief rally or risk-off dip?

#FOMC #Crypto