$AAVE passe sous le plancher des 144 $ : achat entre 144,50 et 146,50 $, sortie sous 142 $

B-Sol · 2026-10-23T01:03:58.000Z

Le $AAVE s’échange autour de 146,6 $ à 07 h 11 ICT le 23 oct. sur Binance Spot (-5,7 % en 24 h, volume d’environ 21 M$). Le 22 oct., le cours a franchi à la baisse le plancher de la fourchette 146–147 $ jusqu’à 144,30 $, avant de clôturer à nouveau au-dessus, à 146,77 $. Voici mon plan, avec une position de taille réduite de moitié. 🔥 Ce qui fait bouger le marché • D’abord, le contexte macro : le BTC est passé de plus de 84 000 $ à environ 81 000 $ le 22 oct., lors d’une journée marquée par l’aversion au risque (les résultats de Tesla et Meta ont pesé sur les contrats à terme du Nasdaq, tandis que le Brent a dépassé 112 $ dans un contexte de tensions entre les États-Unis et l’Iran). Environ 458 M$ de positions ont été liquidés, dont quelque 418 M$ de positions longues. • 22 oct. : Sentora a lancé les premiers marchés de Aave V4 dont la sélection est assurée par des acteurs externes (emprunter du RLUSD, du PYUSD et de l’OUSD en garantie d’USDe, PRIME, mWIN, PST et kBTC). L’Aave DAO conserve la propriété des contrats et impose un délai de verrouillage de 48 h pour les changements qui augmentent les risques.

$AAVE is ~$146.6 at 07:11 ICT Oct 23 on Binance spot (-5.7% in 24h, ~$21M volume). Oct 22 swept the $146–147 range floor down to $144.30 and closed back on it at $146.77. Here is my plan, at half size.
🔥 What's moving it
• Macro first: BTC fell from above $84K to ~$81K on Oct 22 in a risk-off day (Tesla/Meta earnings hit Nasdaq futures, Brent above $112 on US–Iran tensions). ~$458M got liquidated, ~$418M of it longs.
• Oct 22: Sentora launched the first externally curated markets on Aave V4 (borrow RLUSD, PYUSD, OUSD against USDe, PRIME, mWIN, PST and kBTC). Aave DAO keeps contract ownership and a 48h timelock on risk-increasing changes.
• Oct 21: Aave Labs posted an ARFC for Aave V3.8 (reentrancy guard via transient storage, Certora audits before the AIP vote). A separate ARFC to add native BTC collateral on V4 via Babylon vaults is still under discussion.
Real V4 progress, but no hard date. It's a news cluster, and the tape is driving price.
📊 Daily (1D)
Since Oct 13 AAVE has ranged $146.03–165.98. The floor held on Oct 15 ($147.05), Oct 18 ($146.03) and Oct 19 ($146.81).
Oct 22: $154.94 → $146.77, low $144.30. Volume 143.3K AAVE vs a ~121.8K 20-day average (+18%). It swept the floor and closed back on it.
The Sep 28 low ($144.01) sits right below, so $144 is a double-bottom area.
Price is under the daily EMA20 (~$155.8) and just under the EMA50 (~$148.2). Wilder RSI(14) ~42: weak, not oversold.
⏱️ 4H
The 4H rolled over from the Oct 21 high ($160.55) and lost both EMAs: EMA20 ~$150.7, EMA50 ~$153.7. Wilder RSI(14) ~38.
TP1 sits at $151.0–152.5, where the 4H EMA20 meets the Oct 22 breakdown area.
First sign of strength: a 4H close back above $149, which also reclaims the daily EMA50.
🎯 Bull / bear levels
• Bid: $144.50–146.50 (range floor + Sep 28 / Oct 22 lows)
• TP1: $151.0–152.5 (~1.5–1.9R from $145.50)
• TP2: $158.0–160.5 (Oct 20–21 highs, ~3.5–4.2R)
• Out: 4H close below $142 (stop $141.90, risk ~2.5%)
• Bull trigger: 4H close above $149
• Bear case: lose $142 and the Sep 20/24 lows ($133–135) come into play.
No add zone. Half size, and only while BTC holds $80K.
💭 My take
I like the sweep: a fourth tag of $146 with a wick to $144 that got bought back. But this is a range floor in a risk-off tape, not a confirmed reversal. Price is still under the daily EMA20/50 and both 4H EMAs, and every retest weakens a floor. So it's half size with a tight out, and I won't add if BTC loses $80K. If $142 goes, I'm wrong, and I wait for $133–135.
Would you buy $AAVE at the $144 floor, or wait for a 4H close above $149? 👇
NFA. DYOR.