Le mythe du « Lundi noir » : pourquoi s’attendre à revivre le scénario de l’an dernier est totalement absurde | The last will be first sur Binance Square

The last will be first · 2026-10-18T18:37:07.000Z

Toutes les discussions crypto et tous les fils d’actualité sont en panique en ce moment : certains affirment que, puisqu’un an s’est écoulé depuis ce krach brutal qui a ravagé le marché avec des milliards de liquidations, demain sera automatiquement un nouveau « Lundi noir ». Raisonner ainsi est un piège classique : la foule confond une date du calendrier avec les véritables mécanismes du marché. Les marchés ne s’effondrent pas simplement parce qu’une « heure X » arrive sur le calendrier ou que 365 jours se sont exactement écoulés. Voici pourquoi comparer la situation d’aujourd’hui à celle de l’an dernier n’a aucun sens et pourquoi s’attendre à revivre le même scénario relève de l’auto-illusion pure et simple :

Every crypto chat and timeline right now is panicking: people are claiming that since it's been a year since that brutal crash where the market got wrecked with billions in liquidations, tomorrow is automatically going to be a "Black Monday" all over again.
Thinking like that is a classic trap where the crowd confuses a calendar date with actual market mechanics. Markets don't crash just because an "X-hour" on the calendar hits or exactly 365 days have passed.
Here is why comparing today to last year makes zero sense and why expecting a replay is pure self-deception:
1. Back Then We Were Overheated; Right Now It's Dead Silence
That crash didn't come out of nowhere—Open Interest was through the roof, funding rates were maxed out, and pure greed had everyone jammed into massive long positions. Right now? The picture is completely different. We’ve got a dead sideways grind, drained volumes, and zero massive speculative frenzy. There simply isn't an overheated pile of leveraged positions waiting to get wiped out in one evening. To liquidate billions, someone actually has to pump those billions into leverage first.
2. Macro Triggers Don't Have Clone Buttons
That big drop didn’t happen just because of a date—it was triggered by heavy macro shocks and sudden regulatory and economic news. Markets react to real black swans, not their anniversaries. Hoping a chart will replicate a massive panic just because "it's October again" is astrology, not trading analysis.
3. When Everyone Expects It, It Doesn't Happen
Crypto has one golden rule: if every single blogger is screaming about a "scheduled crash," it usually doesn't play out that way. Smart money isn't going to hand the crowd an easy short setup just because everyone is spooked by a mythical date. Instead of an obvious meltdown, the market is way more likely to keep grinding nerves in a tight range, forcing the panickers to close out of sheer boredom.
Let's Keep It Real
The anniversary of last year's bloodbath is a good reminder to check your risk management, not a sign to prep for an inevitable slaughter.
So be honest: do you actually believe in this "black swan" for tomorrow, or are you just getting sucked into the chatroom psychosis where people are looking for any excuse to justify their own anxiety?
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