That one is true - note published yesterday.$AGT $SIREN $ICNT
*Morgan Stanley (analyst Joseph Moore) on Oct 15, 2026:*
- Quantum computing TAM could grow from *∼$10B in 2030 to >$100B annually by 2040*, _if_ fault-tolerant machines achieve broad commercial adoption. Some notes say $100B+.
- They built a proprietary scorecard - tech progress (weighted most), execution, manufacturability, operational signs. No company has built a fault-tolerant machine yet.
*Top pick: Quantinuum (ticker QNT)* - upgraded to *Overweight from Equal-weight*, price target *$62* = ∼88% upside from Wednesday's close. Moore said Quantinuum is furthest along on tech and execution, especially error-correction, but trades at the *lowest 2030 revenue multiple* among pure-plays. Market pricing in ∼43% visibility vs his 75%.
- Revenue forecast for Quantinuum: *∼$270M in 2028 to $2B in 2030* (computing revenue alone). IonQ at $1.8B in 2030 in their model.
- *Key timeline:* company roadmaps point to early fault-tolerant systems *2029-30*. Morgan Stanley calls *2027 the "proof year" / critical year* - testing manufacturing/scaling, not just lab. Next milestone: Quantinuum's next-gen *Sol system* and IonQ's *Superion 256*.
- They also cut IonQ target to $43 from $49 (still ∼25% upside), noted IonQ's strongest error-correction results haven't yet been reproduced on Superion. Infleqtion, Xanadu have wider outcome ranges.
So yes, $100B by 2040 forecast, but conditional on fault-tolerance breakthrough. The driver they cite is accelerating research + corporate/government investment, not current sales - revenue is still tiny.
*Morgan Stanley (analyst Joseph Moore) on Oct 15, 2026:*
- Quantum computing TAM could grow from *∼$10B in 2030 to >$100B annually by 2040*, _if_ fault-tolerant machines achieve broad commercial adoption. Some notes say $100B+.
- They built a proprietary scorecard - tech progress (weighted most), execution, manufacturability, operational signs. No company has built a fault-tolerant machine yet.
*Top pick: Quantinuum (ticker QNT)* - upgraded to *Overweight from Equal-weight*, price target *$62* = ∼88% upside from Wednesday's close. Moore said Quantinuum is furthest along on tech and execution, especially error-correction, but trades at the *lowest 2030 revenue multiple* among pure-plays. Market pricing in ∼43% visibility vs his 75%.
- Revenue forecast for Quantinuum: *∼$270M in 2028 to $2B in 2030* (computing revenue alone). IonQ at $1.8B in 2030 in their model.
- *Key timeline:* company roadmaps point to early fault-tolerant systems *2029-30*. Morgan Stanley calls *2027 the "proof year" / critical year* - testing manufacturing/scaling, not just lab. Next milestone: Quantinuum's next-gen *Sol system* and IonQ's *Superion 256*.
- They also cut IonQ target to $43 from $49 (still ∼25% upside), noted IonQ's strongest error-correction results haven't yet been reproduced on Superion. Infleqtion, Xanadu have wider outcome ranges.
So yes, $100B by 2040 forecast, but conditional on fault-tolerance breakthrough. The driver they cite is accelerating research + corporate/government investment, not current sales - revenue is still tiny.