C: Back Inside the Range. But Is It Real Strength?
$BTC has made its way back inside the local range, but I remain sceptical.
Over the weekend, we slowly grinded higher and reclaimed the range boundaries. However, the underlying picture leaves me with more scepticism than certainty.
📉 Why I'm Still Cautious
The move came with:
-> Largely flat OI; little evidence of fresh capital entering the market.
-> Exhaustive buying behaviour; buyers are making progress, but the move lacks conviction.
-> Corrective price and volume divergence; another sign that the recovery may be weaker than it looks.
On top of that, we saw an immediate rejection from the nPOC upon reaching it again.
With everyone now calling for higher prices, I don't want to get carried away. As much as I'd love to see further upside, I have to stay objective.
This range can still very well be interpreted as a distribution schematic.
🔎 What Would Change My Mind?
There is an opposing case: the last dip could be classified as a failed auction or a spring.
However, I'm currently lacking the confirmation needed to adopt that interpretation.
For me to shift my base case, I want to see:
-> Price holding inside the range.
-> Pullbacks becoming progressively less effective.
-> Subsequent buying producing increasingly meaningful upward progress.
-> A strong break above 84k as a particularly convincing signal.
Until then, I won't overinterpret weekend price action.
The real test begins when fresh weekly liquidity enters the market over the next few days. That's where I’ll be focusing most of my attention.
$BTC
$BTC has made its way back inside the local range, but I remain sceptical.
Over the weekend, we slowly grinded higher and reclaimed the range boundaries. However, the underlying picture leaves me with more scepticism than certainty.
📉 Why I'm Still Cautious
The move came with:
-> Largely flat OI; little evidence of fresh capital entering the market.
-> Exhaustive buying behaviour; buyers are making progress, but the move lacks conviction.
-> Corrective price and volume divergence; another sign that the recovery may be weaker than it looks.
On top of that, we saw an immediate rejection from the nPOC upon reaching it again.
With everyone now calling for higher prices, I don't want to get carried away. As much as I'd love to see further upside, I have to stay objective.
This range can still very well be interpreted as a distribution schematic.
🔎 What Would Change My Mind?
There is an opposing case: the last dip could be classified as a failed auction or a spring.
However, I'm currently lacking the confirmation needed to adopt that interpretation.
For me to shift my base case, I want to see:
-> Price holding inside the range.
-> Pullbacks becoming progressively less effective.
-> Subsequent buying producing increasingly meaningful upward progress.
-> A strong break above 84k as a particularly convincing signal.
Until then, I won't overinterpret weekend price action.
The real test begins when fresh weekly liquidity enters the market over the next few days. That's where I’ll be focusing most of my attention.
$BTC