Measured on the main USDT pair, October has closed green in 8 of the 9 completed years since 2017, with an average of +18.1% and a median of +11%. The two red ones sit at the edges of the sample: 2018 at -3.8% and 2025 at -3.9%. The part that answers the question is this year's tape. October 2026 opened at 83,624 and $BTC trades at 83,978 today, so the month is +0.4% with seven sessions gone. The seasonal average would put it near 98,700 by month end, which is 17% above here.
A 9 out of 10 hit rate on a sample of ten is a pattern, not an edge. It also hides the shape: 2017 printed +47.6% and 2022 printed +5.5%, and both count as the same green month.
What I watch instead of the season: the 86,999 ceiling that rejected price five times since September 21, and the 82,563 floor of the last ten sessions. The month resolves on which one goes first.
Follow me for daily market breakdowns.
#bitcoin #btc #crypto #altcoin
A 9 out of 10 hit rate on a sample of ten is a pattern, not an edge. It also hides the shape: 2017 printed +47.6% and 2022 printed +5.5%, and both count as the same green month.
What I watch instead of the season: the 86,999 ceiling that rejected price five times since September 21, and the 82,563 floor of the last ten sessions. The month resolves on which one goes first.
Follow me for daily market breakdowns.
#bitcoin #btc #crypto #altcoin