*Thursday Oct 2 pre-jobs (your 84,800 reference):*
- *BTC ∼$84,800 +1% — 10Y -9.4bp to 5.217% after hitting 5.36% intraday — 2Y -12.3bp to 4.764% — WTI $92.63 / Brent $101.53 on Mideast tension — Euro hit as French OAT-Bund spread 135bp* $GLMR $QI $龙虾
- *Fed hike odds for Oct 28: 70% Mon → 47% after soft PCE → 37% Thu → 30% Thu afternoon per Fed Vice Chair Jefferson "more time needed"*
*Friday Oct 3 NFP actual — this is the crucial update:*
- *NFP +29K vs 84-90K exp — Aug 162K→133K, Jul +21K→-10K (-60K net) — unemployment 4.2% vs 4.1% exp — participation 61.8% +0.2pp — wages +0.1% m/m +3.0% y/y vs 3.2% exp — BTC popped to $87,229 intra then closed $84,494 -0.4% — 10Y dropped to <5.20% then ended 5.28%, 2Y 4.73% -6bp — Oct hike odds now 22.7% (CME) / 17-23% intraday, Dec hike still >75% base case per Goldman — SPX +1% week*
So easing yields DID give risk room, but your 84,800 is Thu level, not post-NFP breakout. Resistance at 85K-85.5K has 3x sell wall per Glassnode, $6.4B volume near ETF-era lows, next 87.1K-87.4K.#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17% #NvidiaHitsRecordHighUp2.4% #CanaryFilesAmendedS1ForPEPEETF #USRussiaUkraineTalksReportedlyIncludeLukoilOilDeal
- *BTC ∼$84,800 +1% — 10Y -9.4bp to 5.217% after hitting 5.36% intraday — 2Y -12.3bp to 4.764% — WTI $92.63 / Brent $101.53 on Mideast tension — Euro hit as French OAT-Bund spread 135bp* $GLMR $QI $龙虾
- *Fed hike odds for Oct 28: 70% Mon → 47% after soft PCE → 37% Thu → 30% Thu afternoon per Fed Vice Chair Jefferson "more time needed"*
*Friday Oct 3 NFP actual — this is the crucial update:*
- *NFP +29K vs 84-90K exp — Aug 162K→133K, Jul +21K→-10K (-60K net) — unemployment 4.2% vs 4.1% exp — participation 61.8% +0.2pp — wages +0.1% m/m +3.0% y/y vs 3.2% exp — BTC popped to $87,229 intra then closed $84,494 -0.4% — 10Y dropped to <5.20% then ended 5.28%, 2Y 4.73% -6bp — Oct hike odds now 22.7% (CME) / 17-23% intraday, Dec hike still >75% base case per Goldman — SPX +1% week*
So easing yields DID give risk room, but your 84,800 is Thu level, not post-NFP breakout. Resistance at 85K-85.5K has 3x sell wall per Glassnode, $6.4B volume near ETF-era lows, next 87.1K-87.4K.#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallTo17% #NvidiaHitsRecordHighUp2.4% #CanaryFilesAmendedS1ForPEPEETF #USRussiaUkraineTalksReportedlyIncludeLukoilOilDeal
