ONDO is trading around $0.43, but the important part of the current setup is slightly higher: $0.48546.
That is the level marked on the daily chart as the confirmation of the missing Wave (Y). Until price clears it, the projected upside remains a scenario rather than a confirmed continuation.
Fundamental / News Catalyst
Ondo's tokenization business has had several notable developments in September.
On September 21, Ondo announced in-kind conversion for institutional clients, allowing eligible institutions to mint and redeem tokenized stocks and ETFs directly against the underlying securities rather than first converting through cash. The initial implementation supports Ethereum and BNB Chain.
A few days earlier, Ondo's subsidiary Oasis Pro Markets became the first tokenization platform to join DTCC's Fund/SERV, a network that processes more than 85% of U.S. mutual-fund transaction activity. The integration is intended to connect Ondo's tokenized funds with traditional fund-distribution infrastructure.
Ondo also went live on near.com and NEAR Intents on September 22, bringing 20 tokenized stocks, ETFs and commodity-linked products into the platform. Ondo says its platform now has more than $1 billion in TVL and more than $26 billion in cumulative trading volume.
These developments strengthen the broader tokenization narrative, but they are separate from the technical confirmation on the chart.
Technical Analysis
The daily structure shows ONDO completing a large corrective sequence from the late-2025 highs into the $0.20 area, followed by a recovery and a developing structure higher.
The current count is looking for a missing Wave (Y).
Price is currently around $0.43, just below the key $0.48546 level marked as the confirmation of the missing Wave (Y).
This makes $0.48546 the immediate level that matters.
If price confirms the structure above that area, the first marked target is $0.65650.
The second target sits at $0.86736, corresponding with the 0.618 extension shown on the chart.
There is also a clearly defined invalidation level at $0.29016. A move below this level invalidates the current Triangle of Wave (X) count.
So the setup is relatively straightforward: the structure is developing, but the missing Wave (Y) still needs confirmation.
Key Levels
$0.48546 â Confirmation of missing Wave (Y)
$0.65650 â Wave (Y) first target
$0.86736 â Wave (Y) second target / 0.618
$0.29016 â Wave (X) triangle count invalidation
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move above $0.48546 confirms the missing Wave (Y) according to the current count and opens the path toward $0.65650, followed by $0.86736.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to confirm the Wave (Y), followed by a move lower, would keep the current structure unresolved. The key invalidation sits at $0.29016
