myphoenix

If this is the lower high on gold, which it could be, I see it going back to 4500–4600 soon.

I feel sorry for everyone who lost money in this crash. Probably one of the most severe flushes I’ve seen.

Looking at the altcoins, I honestly don’t think any leveraged trader who was long before this is safe. Most people rarely use 1–2x leverage these days, and that’s what makes these wipeouts so brutal.

If any of your friends were long and got liquidated, please check in on them. This isn’t something any of us expect, and it hits hard when it happens. I’ve been there myself and I know how painful it feels when months of effort vanish in minutes. Stay strong, and take a break if you need to. The market will always give another chance your mental health matters more.

The last U.S. government shutdown was back in Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019, and it lasted 35 days (the longest in history).

You may want to know how markets reacted during that time:
-Bitcoin was already deep in its bear market and kept sliding, moving from around $3.7k down closer to $3.4k.

-Stocks (S&P 500) had 10% drop in December 2018 but then bounced hard in January 2019, recovering more than 9% that month.

-Gold did its thing as a safe haven, climbing about 3% through January.

So while Bitcoin struggled, stocks rebounded sharply, and gold stayed steady and gained a little.

History shows shutdowns don’t always kill the market, but they do bring uncertainty and that’s when you manage your porfolio and positions.

Here is how you can plan your trade setups or you can also call it different trade strategies.

Plan 1: Sharp move up and Reversal/Pullback
How it looks like? A sharp rally followed by a sudden spike and then a steep drop.
How it happens?
• FOMO buying pushes price rapidly up.
• Smart money sells into that strength.
• Price quickly reverses and breaks below support.
⁠
How to trade?
• Avoid buying the spike.
• Look for price to return to previous demand/support levels.

Plan 2: Consolidation then Breakout
What it looks like?

A strong move up, then sideways or consolidation, followed by a breakout.
Why that happens?
• Market is cooling off and accumulating.
• Buyers and sellers shakeout within the range.
• Breakout suggests fresh buying momentum.
How to trade?
• Watch for breakout from the consolidation zone.
• Buy the breakout or the retest.
This Ideal setup for trend continuation trades.

Plan 3: Breakout and Retest
What it looks like?

Price breaks above resistance, pulls back, and retests the breakout level.
How that happens?
• Initial breakout occurs.
• Traders take profit, causing a pullback.
• Buyers defend the breakout level (new support).
How to trade?
• Buy the successful retest (when price holds above previous resistance).
• Safer than buying the breakout itself.
• Often leads to a strong continuation.

Good luck & Keep Learning